10 Year Treasury yield

The first chart below is the 10 year Treasury yield with 20w and 80w volatility based envelopes. The 78 week cycle is alive and well in bonds in addition to stocks. I expect some chop over the next month or so and then a very strong move down in Treasury yields. The first projected low is August 1 and the second is mid-to-late December. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10 year yield below 1.00% by year-end.

What would cause this to happen other than the projected July/August 18m low in stocks? The market sniffing out a recession is the most likely reason. The second chart shows that the 18 year (208 month) Kuznets economic cycle is set to roll over. Copper and crude are starting to confirm this. Support from the 18m and 54m FLDs for stock indices show we have a nice long way to fall by July/August with another potential hard leg down into year end.

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curt,

If you can can you recategorize this thread to analysis. Thanks.

cheers,
john