80-day peak in the Aussie $?


#1

Is anyone else watching the AUDUSD? I am thinking the 80-day peak is in. Another interesting Hurst cycles story … I’m going to try to tell the story in pictures … :slight_smile:

Wednesday 19 October, 3pm CET:

Price is jammed up against those 2 VTL’s and cannot get through … but there are 2 FLD targets just above there. FLD targets are like great big magnets … something has to give!

4 hours later:

Bingo! FLD targets acquired … now where’s it going to go? One of the most common actions a market takes after striking an FLD target is a return to the FLD for a tap.

8 hours later:

Looks like that peak is in … odds of price dropping back to the FLD are good.

16 hours later (Thursday 21 October 11pm CET):

Back at the FLD! Here we expect it to find support … we’re also now expecting a 10-day cycle trough. The perfect place for that 10-day trough to form would be at the 10-day FLD … of course the markets aren’t perfect, but a bounce is certainly a possibility.

Time to drop to a lower timeframe and look for that bounce …


#2

Here is the 15-minute chart at 7:45am CET Friday, 21 October:

A few good things here … price has hit the 2-day FLD short target (the dark purple line on the left) … then it has made a double-bottom … we have the nest-of-lows for the 10-day trough here (M15 chart only shows up to 5-day cycle, but we know from longer timeframe charts that it is 10-day) … and price is just through the 1-day FLD with a target up at 0.76500 (I cropped the price scale out so I could show that 2-day FLD)

1 hour later:

We hit that target … time for a pull-back. But if that is the 10-day trough we should see some more bullish action. Don’t forget that the 80-day peak though. Do you think that peak is in? If so I’m not going to be bullish for too long :slight_smile:


#3

Quick update … 11:30am CET Friday:
After hitting the 1-day FLD target Aussie dollar fell back to find support at … you guessed it, the 1-day FLD. For the bullish picture (bounce out of 10-day trough) to hold it needs to pull itself up from here. If it fails then we’ll be looking for that 10-day trough to happen soon. I also like that 5-day circle here …


#4

Another update … 2pm CET 21 October:

We got a bounce off the 1-day FLD, but it was stopped at the 1-day VTL. Now trapped in what has been called a VTL wedge …


#5

That is why I like new FLD targets.
Not always happening, but overshoot or non-conformation give me additional information


#6

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, will follow this thread to see how it plays out.


#7

I always follow Proxy markets to see if they confirm or diverge with market I analyze
Here is Oz dollar vs Chinese RNB - looks classic to me
But both USD and RNB have to agree for me to put my head on the line - I wait!!! Patience is GOLD

Do not overlook fundamentals: China is the biggest importer of Australian goods; To buy them they have to exchange RNB to AUD

The Similiar relation is with Gold and Copper. I will trade Copper, but I am analyzing Gold to confirm (and Nikkei of course)


#8

That’s an interesting chart @Gladitrader you will have to explain those converging lines. My apologies for having left this post in mid-air - my attention moved on to other instruments, but here is a quick wrap up of what happened in the Aussie (in my opinion).

An hour and a half after my previous post:

Price was repelled lower by the 1-day VTL, and crossed below the 5-hour VTL (the white line), thereby confirming that the 1-day peak was in place … that peak had already been placed there by the analysis indicator, on the bar at which the 1-day upside target was reached. Price then crossed below the 1-day FLD - look out for those VTL and FLD combos, they are often powerful. Then an hour and a half later the 1-day FLD target was reached.

Notice the 5-day and 2-day trough circles - as mentioned earlier I am expecting a 10-day cycle trough here, and we are right in the zone for that trough …

Let’s jump ahead a few hours:

Price dropped lower following the acquiring of the 1-day FLD target … there is definitely bearish pressure (which is no surprise given that the 80-day cycle might have peaked), and look at how it is kept down by the 5-hour VTL (white line), and makes a double-bottom. We are looking for a trough here, but it is late on Friday and so the market begins to drift into the weekend.

Jumping ahead to the end of trading on Friday:

The double-bottom held and price crossed above the 5-hour VTL, confirming the 1-day trough, and perhaps the 10-day trough that we have been expecting. Is that the 10-day trough? I like to step back to the H4 chart to reassess:

There you can see the bounce off the 10-day FLD, and then price has come back to the 10-day FLD and slipped a little below it. It is possible that price will form the 10.day trough here, but I actually think that it is more likely that we will look back and place that 10-day trough at the bounce we followed this morning. After all, if the 80-day peak is in place the overwhelming pressure is bearish, and a 10-day trough is likely to give us a very subtle bounce, such as we witnessed today.
Price might well track up with the 10-day FLD a little, but I would be looking for it to resolve to the downside and head down to the 10-day FLD target.

I hope you find this useful … Hurst cycles provide us with a great way of understanding the way price moves, like a constantly unfolding story.


#9

My apology;
They are not converging lines, just automatic price-line and my long trend line.
I wanted to show that AUD gains strength as I expect a cluster of throughs to happen in February this year.
Gann said that “The second bottom is usually market bottom” and it is often true.

About classic pattern:
I did not call for H&S or Rounding Bottom, as it could be Double Bottom, Cup with Handle, Ladle, Scallop or anything else.

I expect this move UP to be choppy

NExt chart is not AUD, but Gold.
Anyway AUD follows Gold really well

And here is historical reference to AUD vs Gold

That is why this move up may be really messy


#10

The Australian Dollar in 5 Days / 5 Minutes

Parameters : 0.003125, 0.0015625, 0.00078125

The Australian Dollar in 6 Months

Parameters : 0.0125, 0.00625, 0.003125


#11