This thread compares equity indices only and enhances our confidence of what is to come via Hurst’s principle of commonality. I will kick off with the S&P 500 and the coming 18 month nominal low. Please post your phasing analysis of other indices around the globe!
Here is my home market the $TSX. I’ve reduced that date span a bit, to give better clarity.
For the purposes of commonality, the important 20 week, 40 week cycle periods are:
Jan/2016 20, 40, 80 wk
June/2016 20wk (let’s call it a straddle between May & June)
Nov/2016 20, 40 wk (US Elections) - I think there was a straddle low for a few markets
March/2017 20 wk
I am not using Hurst’s nominal model. Let’s leave that out of the discussion. Sentient is run with my preferred model for the TSX. Peaks & troughs analysis is being used. I am impressed at how well the analysis improves from trough only to peak & trough.
Its important to note that the straddle low in Jan/Feb. 2016 between markets has given a few straddle lows through these 20 week cycle periods in many markets. India is another one that comes to mind and is one of my favorites off of last year’s lows.
I’ve not shown the composite line but for the purposes of this discussion, let’s keep to Hurst basic principles and use them to confirm what we see.
I have a recent 26 day FLD cross down for a sell. So I am not buying anything, rather have been trimming positions actively where possible. The $TSX was down 150 points first thing this morning, and near as I can tell is leading many markets down with its weak energy/oil complex for weeks. The composite line has already signalled an imminent break lower.
And finally, for this market I was very bullish on it last year. It is up 40% at recent highs from Jan. 2016. The high in March 2017 is not a major top. Simply we have to see how the current 20 week cycle unfolds.
Back to you David. BTW, are we going to be the only ones discussing and using Hurst techniques on this board?
addendum 1: Canadian financials have been particularly weak off the early March high. They have been in a steady downtrend with the energy/oil complex since.
addendum 2: The 18 month FLD (not shown) will provide support through the summer at ~ 14500 level for the $TSX. I would expect this FLD to be touched at some point this summer signaling the 18 month is forming. It represents a 9-10% correction off the highs. I do not expect much more drama.
Just a heads up that the $TSX, one of the strongest markets off last year’s low is heading lower into its current 20 week cycle. The latest 20 week cycle for the $TSX started late March and with weak oil,commodities, and financials, this index is sliding into the coming 80 cycle week low. The March low was breached 6 trading days ago. Technicals look poor so standing aside on any longs.
For a cup of coffee. Then it’s got eyes for the 18m FLD in mid-August (my psychic told me 8/21). 40w FLD is in the 8-10% “correction” zone. 18m FLD is the 19-20% line of demarcation for a bear market. Funny how that works.