CONTINENTAL AG (the tire company)


#1

Hello

I invite you to take a look at CONTINENTAL AG (CONG), the tire company. Will EVs really succeed ? Who knows, but EV or not, cars need tires.

I have used only Hurst nominal model lengths, as I think they fit well the data I have from 2000.

I have looked at four cases:

1- DEFAULT unpinned model
2- DEFAULT model with 54m trough pinned at APR2013 AND next two 18m troughs pinned AND 40wk trough pinned to MAR2018
3- DEFAULT model with 54m trough pinned at APR2013 AND followed by two short pinned 18m troughs
4- DEFAULT model with 54m trough pinned at APR2013 (and nothing else)

Graphs




Comments:

1- The DEFAULT model is already pretty good in my opinion. It places the 54m trough in OCT2014. Expects
we are closing in on an 18m trough, which could be even 54m or 9yr. CML is then very bullish till AUG2019, where the next 18m peak lies.

2- This first alternative pins the 54m trough to APR2013, and selects two obvious troughs for the next two 18m troughs as well as one 40wk trough. This results in that Sentient thinks we are close to an 18m trough, that could be 54m or even 9yr. CML is also very bullish till AUG2019.

3- This second alternative pins the 54m trough to APR2013 and selects two short 18m troughs for the next two troughs. This pulls the 9yr trough to NOV2016. Sentient then thinks that we are closing in on a 40wk trough. CML is bullish till MAY2019.

4- This third alternative pins the 54m trough to APR2013 and does nothing else. Sentient then places the 9yr trough in APR2018. Seems off, but who knows. In this case Sentient expects a 40wk trough in FEB2019, followed by the 18m peak in AUG2019. So, CML points down to FEB2019 and then points up to AUG2019.

I have written these 4 cases in order of what I consider the best ‘likelihood’. Last case is less likely.

Also of interest is that the monthly chart is about to complete a DeMark perfected 9TD BUY setup.

This is all very nice and bullish. But looking at the CONTINENTAL price chart, it’s catching a falling knife…


#2

Hey Emanuel, I wanted to check in to see if youre thinking of shorting equities. I think we are in a G category interaction and must make a last new low. If Im wrong please correct me.


#3

Hello Derek

Which equity, index, are you referring to for the category G ? Same for shorting, which items are you referring to ? And what time frame ?

Some time frames are extremely oversold.

Also, shorting involves looking at peaks, which is generally more tricky…


#4

Hello

A quick update on CONTINENTAL AG:

From the last post in DEC2018 we were at 122€, we are now close to 140€.

Still expecting the same rise to an 18m peak mid-year 2019.

For the immediate case, a retracement is now expected during FEB2019, from a possible 20wk peak to an 80 day trough. Which will likely be a good time to add longs…