Copper (HG) (EOD)


#1

Current phasing of High Grade Copper I am tracking expects a 40 week low imminently. Price is around the 18 month FLD currently. Whether the nominal 9 year was back in January is a matter of conjecture but it is at least a nominal 18 month low in my view.


#2

I would agree completely.


#3

Time for an update on this market. The 40 week cycle was a pretty epic long, perhaps we will see resistance at the 54 month FLD? Anyway just posted this chart on twitter and worth sharing here aswell. Zig zags added for indication.

D


#4

That was a great call back in October David! Interesting to see the 18-month peak looming there, with stock markets looking for peaks …


#5

Thanks David, I try my best!

Keen eyes will notice I have moved the 18 month peak across. It made little difference to the trade out of the 40 week low but once the March peak was broken it could NOT have been an 18 month peak. Whether there is a nominal 9 year in place remains to be seen…but long term VTLS have been breached…

Dave


#6

Hi possible 18 months peak for me .
Sorry but don’t write very well english.
Waiting for 20 days bottom middle of december.


#7

Looking for the same important peak here. I come up with slightly different cycles. Looking to buy a good low in the coming weeks. Will post when I get back home later this week.
cheers,
john


#8

Update on Dr.Copper. Probably has peaked, should be a good buy in the height of summer July time…

Dave


#9

Copper - looks like w of (IV) has bottomed and we may play upside into mid April fir wave x of (IV)


#10

Copper(W)


Copper(W)


#11

HD Daily


#12

I never got around to posting my copper analysis in recent weeks. That is not to say I wasn’t working on it. But I have not studying this market before and my confidence hasn’t been high.

Copper broke out of an 8 year triangle (formed by the 6.5 yr VTL down & the 13 yr up). I was scrambling back in the fall. I could see it coming (please note that many EW analysts and even some cycle analysts were seeing this a wave 4 type move - wrong!) and some of the analysis back then was clearly showing the potential for a breakout.

From a purely technical perspective, anything that breaks out from such a large, long duration triangle is going to make a large move. And that is still underway IMO.

I had a private exchange with William Randall last fall as that breakout was about to occur. And from William’s bandpass filter work I use a nominal model for copper which starts with these two very large cycles (6.5 yr and 13 yr). It is interesting to note that Ray Tomes (a very accomplished cycle analyst from New Zealand) had published a copper cycles study with the Foundation of Cycles years ago and he identified both these same cycles in his work. How to work with the nominal model from there to smaller cycles is still a work in progress.

So here is the current view. I had been looking for an intermediate peak sometime in the first quarter, but now looking for the long entry. A very bullish phase should be setting up for the metal and should run the balance of the year if this market is bullish and this analysis is correct.

The 23 week FLD is providing support and confirmed the February high. Now this market should hunt for an important low that could stretch for a few weeks yet as copper consolidates its first major leg up. One can see from the peaks analysis, a very bullish phase should begin by the spring time. Let’s keep a close eye on this market, not simply because it is a good multi-month trade, but also because it should give us some conviction when looking at related markets.

cheers,
john


#13

I have not traded Copper ether, but it seems to be cyclical and to be considered for the Hurst type of analysis.


#14

I’m watching FCX and SSCO as a proxy to Copper


#15

Nice.


#16

Copper just doing its thing…update below: 20 week cycle bounce with support from the 40 week nominal FLD. Nice.


#17

HD Daily


#18

Copper is in the 54 month/18 month FLD bubble. I’m expecting support at the 18 month FLD in July for what could be a great long.


#19

Held up with health issues again this week. I think copper is a trade long now best considered into year end. Should expect one more rally as larger cycles are pointing up. Watching copper stocks as they’ve settled back to breakout levels of last fall. As markets hunt for summers lows it might be early for copper stocks. Late July is my current bet for an 80 week low in stocks. Sideways trading continues …?


#20

David, totally agree with you. I’m still convinced copper has not completed wave 4 shaped as W-X-Y. We need the final five down which at this stage look like an ED where we have got abc of i down and working on c of ii up, We can get to 2.45 in Copper (100 ext)