I hadn’t looked at crude oil in a very long time so I figured I’d take a crack at it.
Nominal model, peaks and troughs. Phases like stocks. Works very well back to at least 1994 but I had to jocky the starting date of my analysis due to somewhat limited data.
I don’t believe the magnitude of the bounce coming out of this 80w low but we’ll see. Need more data for a better long term picture. Long term FLDs (not shown) don’t seem to help me much here unless they will act as resistance in the future. There is a big projected low in 2020 like stocks.
Monthly back to 1986 (log scale). Yeah, there’s a lot more downside.