DAX Germany (EOD)


#1

Here’s the DAX phasing I am tracking, for the record. Very nice cycles indeed and suggesting the 20 week low referred to in the FTSE 100 thread occured in March, not April.


#2

David,

Just eye-balling the 18 month cycle price objective and using the point where price broke above the FLD a second time, the target of ~12300 was achieved and easily exceeded. Hmmm, suggests something bullish for at least one more 18 month cycle …?

cheers,
john


#3

Hi John,

Yes I think so. I wouldn’t be surprised in this 18 month cycle for price to find support at the 18 month FLD around 10500 then try for one more high.

Dave


#4

David,
You need to recategorize this as analysis.

cheers,
john


#5

Cheers John, have done. D


#6

Hi Dave,

The 20w low on 3/22 rather than 3/27 (or April) seems to work well for US indices too, at least small caps.

Here’s a longer term perspective on the DAX 9 year cycle with the 80w FLD signal line. I believe we discussed this a while back.

Along with the stylized version including the 3 to 1 harmonics with the shorter cycles from a ST FLD webinar…

This would imply you might have a shot at another high in early 2018.

However, here’s a look at the DAX 18 year cycle with long term FLDs (pardon the mess).

.

A high in June or July with a cascade down to various levels of FLD support would be consistent with the behavior of the market at the end of the last 18 year bubble…I mean cycle. This was in spite of a comparable hyperbolic move out of the previous 54m low. Certainly, this time will probably be different but it is something to keep in mind.

Curt


#7

This is much clearer.


#8

Thanks for these Curt, both great posts. Striking how price has found support at the 54M FLD twice now. Time is running out however and I would be looking for a peak in the 9/18 year cycle early/mid 2018 in line with the trough of the 54M FLD.

Some sort of interaction with the 18 year FLD will be on the cards in the coming years.

Dave


#9

This is a good spot for the 18 month low. It has come down to the placement of the most recent 40 day trough. I would not be surprised to see support at the 40 week FLD here for the 18 month low. Failing that we are in the final 20 day cycle and it requires a puke to the 18 month FLD…next week will show us!

Alternative phasing with later 40 day low.


#10

Price launched off the 40 week FLD for the 18 month nominal low and is now approaching a 80 day peak, possibly 20 week.


#11

80 day peak possibly achieved to the day of your analysis (Nov.7). 20/40 wk peak should be arriving soon.