Deutsche Post AG : an opportunity in the Euro zone


#1

Hello

One other item I follow which can prove an interesting investment in the Euro zone: Deutsche Post AG (DPW).

One limitation is that I have data only since 2009. So bear that in mind.

Below you have the longer term graph and the shorter term zoom in with the CML estimate.
This Sentient analysis is using Hurst nominal cycle lengths, with pinning of a 40wk trough in FEB2018 (even though ST then puts it just after FEB2018…). Importantly to note is that we are 34.7 months from the last 54 month trough, and the average 18 month trough is running at 17.1 months. This means we should be in the vicinity of an 18 month trough. Which could just have happened…


The suggestion here is that we have just seen the 18 month trough and that we can climb to the next 18 month peak expected MAY2019. So, from 18 month trough to peak in 5-6 months.

Other indicators on DPW:

DeMark Weekly: About to make a bullish revearsal (today is friday)
DeMark Daily: After making a 13TD BUY setup in mid-NOV2018, it then produced an added 9TD BUY in mid-DEC2018. Since then, nothing. Yesterday it made a bullish revearsal.

MACD Daily: Recently made a bullish divergence.

On a last note, it may be of interest of those who hold lots of USD to put some of those in EUR.

Comments welcome.


#2

Interesting opportunity. Thanks for your analysis. What is your buy trigger? Do you like FLDs or VTLs or???

Best,

LB


#3

Yes, it looks promising.
I don’t use FLDs or VTLs.
I rather use DeMark.


#4

Do you track the DeMark indicators by hand or what program do you use to track those?


#5

By hand.
On the daily and weekly. Update once a week, except when a trigger is near.


#6

Hello

To the Deutsche Post AG analysis I add my analysis of the DAX, which also suggests we’ve just seen an 18 month trough and that we are heading to an 18 month peak in mid-year 2019.


#7

Good trough phasing, peak phasing is not good. 9 year low in 2016 is questionable but not relevant of course. Look for FLD resistance above, dont use the CML.


#8

Hello David

Do you mean use the FLD for the resistance likely to occur in mid-year 2019 ? And not the CML for that ?


#9

Yes, look for potential resistance at the 20 or 40 week Flds