Our little market here in the UK. Posted here to track a probable 18 month low late July…useful for commonality…
VIX hit the lowest level since Feb.12, 2007 per my thinkorswim charting.
This means strength and shallow than expected move lower for the 18 month cycle low. By the way the correction is running since 1.March one sharp move lower for 2 weeks and it will be finished.
P.S. If some one is interested I have posted on my blog short review how previous occasion in 1993/1994 and 2006/2007 played out, my EW count and thoughts about the 18 months cycle.
You could be right. Personally I am not sure what it means. Market breadth would help to give some context. $NYSI (McClellan Oscillator) has hesitated here as highs have been tested. So jury is out.
I will say that I started my market technical analysis pursuit with Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theory and gave it several years. And in the course of twenty years of study of many different methods, today I never really on Elliott Wave for much. It is an interesting concept and method but needs so many layers of technical screens and time based inputs, that I don’t rely on it much.
That I believe is David Hickson’s experience as well. So while EW may be working for you, you have to consider Hurst cycles, or at least some cyclic method to enhance your work. That is because the glaring weakness of EW is there is NO time component.
And in the Hurst world we all know that the coming 80 week cycle is an important cycle to follow.
I use cycles, they have exactly the same weight as EW. EW shows the pattern and cycles the time window for a top/bottom. I just do not use Sentientrader, FLDs and so on… I am just counting 20 weeks(adjusted for stocks,PM etc.) for important low/high and that is all.
The correction is running for more than two months(despite the new highs) if we see 2-3 weeks lower as I expect we will have a correction for three months and this is your 18 month low. See XLF and DJT ynd you will know what I am talking about - this is where EW helps. Example as I replied to you 8 weeks ago about HUI that it is not a good buy after impulse lower another impulse follows… just basics no need to be EW guru.
And about cycles - SP500 has shorter cycles(quote joestreich:) since 2009 40 week cycle with length 38(Feb.2016-Nov.2016) is exception not the rule usually it is shorter. Three such occasions since 2009, after a long one shorter one is following with length 25-28-31 weeks for the 40 week cycle. Another 2-3 weeks lower and we will have 28-29 length for the 40 week cycle and 18 month cycle with average length 67 weeks.
I do not know if you look at my post on the blog, but EW and VIX history are showing the same as cycles.
I would bet rather on average 18 month cycle confirmed by VIX and EW than on 18 month cycle longer than the usual. Of course I could be wrong and for the first time since 2009 to see 18m cycle with length… who knows 72-75 weeks
The current average lengths of the FTSE cycles (this is a thread about the FTSE 100, please stay on topic) are shown above in the phasing analysis. It is a solid phasing. Commonality with the other indices is of course noted.
I also used EW for a few years before discarding it in favour of the much more elegant Hurstonian method. I do like to read the EW monthly global perspective, which is kindly sent to me by a colleague, for a laugh though.
You are missing 3rd possibility straight up. Its pattern always out of prediction. Dont u think so?
So yes, back on point. The nominal 20 week Hurst cycle has been running long, near an entire 20 weeks low to low since the 2016 lows. That is a change I noted last year. Where as prior to that, certainly from the 2009 lows, this cycle was running much shorter. Something has changed …
And further, just eye-balling it and not running ST in weeks on the $SPX, it is very obvious that late March was the 20 week low IMO. The successful retest was a 5 week low in April …, or the last 20 week cycle ran 24 weeks in the April low.
Whenever I see a cycle of this length miss on a timely low, it raises questions.
The issue you refer to is resolved if you do not consider the 9 year/54 month low at the 2009 low and instead place it in 2011. The low in 2016 being the next 54 month cycle low.
Thats what I’m working with anyway. Price low is not always the cycle low.
I know many subscribe to this, but I can’t. Not for such large cycle periods. Anyway, I will try to have a run at different markets and see how it stacks up against the FTSE.
You may be right of course, over the next few years we will find out. Regardless, an 18 montn low is the next ‘major’ turning point of interest I think and the FTSE seems to be one we can watch with a degree of confidence.
A post was merged into an existing topic: Commonality: Equity Indices
DAX Germany (EOD)
That looks very nice indeed. My only question regarding commonality is when the recent 20 week was (March or April). Which either means heading to an 80 day soon or a 40 day. Either way its a short and (as always) will be resolved via the shorter cycles as we approach the bigger low. I find the nominal model has to be a bit elastic in its application (via experts models and pinning), or you apply a custom model as you have done but I really have no need looking at the phasing of the FTSE.
There will be some kind of interaction with the 18 month FLD. That will be the interesting point, whether its a bounce or a collapse through the FLD to the low. Shorter cycle targets pointing below the 18 month FLD might give a clue. The ol ‘cascade’
Well this is a Hurst Cycles forum so I hope so! The S&P thread is a danger zone haha! All manner of bullshit on display, in my humble opinion, of course.
Lets keep this thread about the FTSE so we have a reference point in future to come back to.
This is the Elliott Wave Count with Fib levels and also the next expected major cycle low date on the chart. The move down into mid to late July this year should be followed by a move up the 7909 area by Feb March time next year. I would then expect to see a further move down that takes considerable time to complete and as its a B wave will likely be messy.
Nice count Richard and thanks for chiming in. See the addendum 2 added to the $TSX posting in this thread. Similar % decline is possible. Maybe David can comment on the FTSE’s position re: 18 month FLD.
$NYSI ticked lower again today. That is seven days down since its recent top. So market breadth in the US is raising a flag.
A post was merged into an existing topic: Commonality: Equity Indices
Did we just lose our $SPX coming 20 week top and 80 week low thread?
The setup here is if we drop hard into a summer low $SPX 150-200 points, then make an 80 week low, whatever rally beyond that is likely to fail and mark the start of a nasty bear market into next year. TWT.
On FTSE, it looks to me like 7100 is the next obvious horizontal support and would also complete a potential H&S formation. If it comes before the end of June, that would be bearish and probability would favor a break of the H&S neckline. If it comes at the end of June for the 10 wk low, that would be neutral, could break either way. If it comes later into August or Sept for the 40wk low, that would be bullish and likely bounce up from there. Pretty straightforward keeping it simple.
Joe, l don’t think you’ve missed anything, l have late July as a top and October for a low, but this is on Delta not Hurst.