Gold and other blink

Nominal 20 weeks cycle top is inplace, right translation. New higher high is likely to follow.


I expect short leaved, sideways correction, before move up with larger correction to follow.

Next year should offer some excellent cyclic opportunities. Then again, depending on how much Trump is permitted to continue botching things it may not pause much til it reaches 2011’s peak.

What does Trump has to do with it? Or you would prefer reds for the president instead? Sorry, since they are now also got some green paint on top of red, so it is more like dirty brown. Reminds me color of ‘national socialist’ in germany before ww2.

“Every time there is a crash, the president ALWAYS comes out and says the economy is fundamentally sound. Hoover did that in 1929 and they have done that every time ever since — both parties. The theory is if the president ever came out and said we are doomed, the people would panic even more. It is just NEVER done until now when the press calls for a recession to defeat a president.”

I will remove this email because politics has nothing to do with this forum, but only when previous email is removed.

1 Like

Without commenting on politics myself, I’ll second b3cker’s “remove both emails” suggestion.

Gold is due for correction into first quarter, but my models still point to gold at $1850 by july 2021

Weekly… $XAU

Daily GDX…

Looking LONG here… @ 20 week nested lows. I would love another stop run…this time below the recent 10 wk @ 26.04 from Aug. Probably not going to happen though.

Upside resistance 1540.00. 20-week nominal cycle bottom and retest of the recent highs. Gold is flat to down, as in the model, into the end of the year. Then accelerating to downside bottoming in the second quarter 2020 for a 40 weeks cycle low.


daily

Inverted Gold, preparing for sizable correction.

I’d like to revisit the late John “Silent One” Oestricht’s custom model for the pm sector and update its current take on gold. So, here’s the general analysis from the 2000 bottom(linear chart):

and how it looks since 2016:

Trough analysis is decent but not great; then again i’m using a limited data base that only goes back to the 1999 bottom and does not allow for a full exploration of the longer cycles (John used a 15y & 7,5y ones in his model). So i forced the pinning of the first 7,5year trough cycle since 1999, from 2005 to 2008 and the trough picture looks better (at least to my eyes):

And here’s the shorter frame from 2016 based on this forced pinning:

Of course, the short term picture is of paramount interest here and in either version, the recent high volatility in the sector is elegantly explained in this model, by having hit a 20month low and racing towards an 8year high, which looks imminent.

Working on automated trading… This one gets in near the bottoms, but can be early by a multiple of the 2.5wk. I think it’s a bit early here, but gold is getting close for the 10 wk low.

Getting close but not there yet. Better get a good conformation. Then again no idea what time frame you are looking at. Seems to me we are forming a 38 day cycle price low . At best it is now and at worst 8-10 days from now. Also there is a good probability 20 week cycle has topped. Why even look for a long trade?

Taking a step back to the weekly…

80 wk nest of lows March 2020

Daily… Our nominal models are different

Downside targets 5 wk FLD gives 1655
10 wk FLD (double cross) gives 1631.10
And horizontal support @ 1598.6

Time frame is trading the 10 wk cycle.

@GC Daily

Sold 1/2 ~ 1800. Expected weakness for the upcoming 5 wk low.
Keep the rest in case it continues to trend higher, otherwise will sell the rest during the next 2.5 week cycle.

Should be a good short.

Hi There,
Can you please let me know which program you use for automated trading and also I like to know if you post about currency as well.

Thanks
Ahmed

I use Tradestation.

I only follow $USD Index.

Let me start by stating, it is my believe that Gold is a hedge against stupidity of the elites. It’s not surprising, considering political climate , long term models point to rising price of Gold and significant peaks around next two elections 2020 and 2024. Unless you think politicians are getting any smarter, subsequent corrections should be buying opportunities.


weekly