Gold and other blink

What does Trump has to do with it? Or you would prefer reds for the president instead? Sorry, since they are now also got some green paint on top of red, so it is more like dirty brown. Reminds me color of ‘national socialist’ in germany before ww2.

“Every time there is a crash, the president ALWAYS comes out and says the economy is fundamentally sound. Hoover did that in 1929 and they have done that every time ever since — both parties. The theory is if the president ever came out and said we are doomed, the people would panic even more. It is just NEVER done until now when the press calls for a recession to defeat a president.”

I will remove this email because politics has nothing to do with this forum, but only when previous email is removed.

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Without commenting on politics myself, I’ll second b3cker’s “remove both emails” suggestion.

Gold is due for correction into first quarter, but my models still point to gold at $1850 by july 2021

Weekly… $XAU

Daily GDX…

Looking LONG here… @ 20 week nested lows. I would love another stop run…this time below the recent 10 wk @ 26.04 from Aug. Probably not going to happen though.

Upside resistance 1540.00. 20-week nominal cycle bottom and retest of the recent highs. Gold is flat to down, as in the model, into the end of the year. Then accelerating to downside bottoming in the second quarter 2020 for a 40 weeks cycle low.


Inverted Gold, preparing for sizable correction.

I’d like to revisit the late John “Silent One” Oestricht’s custom model for the pm sector and update its current take on gold. So, here’s the general analysis from the 2000 bottom(linear chart):

and how it looks since 2016:

Trough analysis is decent but not great; then again i’m using a limited data base that only goes back to the 1999 bottom and does not allow for a full exploration of the longer cycles (John used a 15y & 7,5y ones in his model). So i forced the pinning of the first 7,5year trough cycle since 1999, from 2005 to 2008 and the trough picture looks better (at least to my eyes):

And here’s the shorter frame from 2016 based on this forced pinning:

Of course, the short term picture is of paramount interest here and in either version, the recent high volatility in the sector is elegantly explained in this model, by having hit a 20month low and racing towards an 8year high, which looks imminent.