Gold Short Cycle Analysis


#1

2.5 wk VTL was violated yesterday.

20 minute Gold. A bit of a caveat here. I took the 1.25 wk cycle and subdivided the harmonics by a factor of 2. I would love to hear what others are using for the intra-day cycles.

I used GLL to short Gold at yesterdays close when price failed to make a higher high and the 1.25wk FLD was providing resistence. Probably a bit premature. Today the FLD 2 cycles shorter could have provided a short entry. If 1.25 wk cycle has indeed been violated, next week should have a downward bias. Since Gold has been positively correlated to Bonds, I used this to hedge against lower bond prices as well since I am long IEF.


#2

For the bearish scenario to continue in my opinion, price must not exceed the previous cycle high of 1277. That is my stop, which if elected would be break even. Otherwise, will continue to hold.


#3

The second 2.5 wk cycle has turned up indicating a 5 wk low has been seen. I considered taking partial profits at the morning low yesterday, but decided to hold and exited this AM with a slight loss due to the gap down. No position for now.