Intraday Analysis

Hi guys, I haven’t posted here before but have been lurking in the background with interest. I am keen to use Hurst for intraday and was hoping others might be able to help. I like confirming the next higher peak or trough with a cross of the VTL but often when price crosses, it spikes up or down further, negating the confirmation. I appreciate its all statistics and nothing is set in stone but how do others deal with this? I took a long on GBPUSD today as price retraced to the 90 min VTL in the green box drawn expecting to have found the 5 hour low, however price spiked down a further 20 pips before heading in the expected direction after meeting support at the 5 hour FLD.

Hi Rusty

If your a tradesman with a big shiny red toolbox…you open said tool box and every tool is a “Hammer”. The whole tool box just filled to the brink with hammers. Now all your problems appear as NAILS.

As a long time cycle user I have always found that cycles are best used as one component of a complete trading system. You must have other none cycle related tools, in order to pick tops & bottoms (market turns) succesfully.

Cheers

Hi Dom, thanks for your response, I do use other “Hammers” which were indicating a potential reversal too. I was just wondering if I was missing anything obvious based on Hurst alone as price crossed the 90 min VTL by a hell of a way in this case for it to be a false break. I suppose I just need to give the stop loss more room. Pity because it turns out that was a two day low too. Oh well, onto the next…

Hi Rusty,

The intraday model built into the MT4 indicator (dynamic nominal model) was no use to me when I had a look. The original intraday nominal model works better across most instruments - that is possibly why you are struggling. Why it was not built into the plugin I don’t know. I have requested its inclusion but no update has surfaced for months, alas so I gave up and simply reverted to ST.

Secondly be very careful trading intraday unless you have an absolutely sound knowledge of Hurstonian techniques and are also aware of macro news events that can ramp up amplitude a lot. For example a cycle low may not be the price low in some circumstances where news events have had an effect, confusing the overall picture.

Thanks

Dave

Good evening all,

I was liking this post because it does happen obviously quite a bit if using intraday VTLs.

In addition to what Dave said:
On this occasion, ST put the 11:30ish trough as a 90 minute trough and subsequently broke the 90 minute VTL at 11:50ish at 1.32425.

Does that indicate to you that perhaps the VTL break later on (that you’re referring to) could be a false or subsequent break of the VTL? Im leaning towards this reasoning myself.

Also, I wanted to contribute to the discussion with a follow up to your question.

Trading cycles intraday is extremely difficult.
I know from some experience, that trying to trade a 1 minute chart and pick trough bottoms with VTLs is very frustrating.

Indeed, I think there are other ways to do this:

  • wait for overdue and larger nest of lows (5 Hour), and use a 15 minute chart.
  • extreme oversold signal on 1 hour, 30 min, and 15 minute charts (14 period RSI)
  • set stop larger or no stop (best idea)
  • wait for larger higher low (60 minute or above trough), than a 15 minute or 30 minute trough (as in your example). This is probably what Hurst would do as taught in the Cycles course
  • use a 4 renko or above box and use 160 minute FLD (O:O) … I think these are making system builds very happy
  • usa a parabolic SAR on 2 renko, wait for bullish break, and take pullback

I think as you will see that using a 2-4 renko with a RSI 14 (factory Ninjatrader), that the minimum for 6B to reverse is an oversold value of 30 on RSI for great 5 hour reversals.

I think you had a great setup and trade there, maybe the stop is too tight. OR maybe the position is not let to run for the 3 hours that you intended? Because if you use TIME as well as PRICE, you can expect to see 3 hours of up, if you’re considering your 90 minute VTL entry to be the action signal for the 5 hour low. Indeed the 900AM peak (my chart pic) is right in line with 3 hours of “up” from the 600AM low. Your entry returned one to one reward to risk if you held your position. This is about average for systems with no filters. Let me show you my setup and the filters Im talking about once more and then Ill let you do some testing. Let me know how it goes please.

FINAL ANSWER FOR 5 HOUR LOW BUY

  1. Use 2-4 renko chart

  2. RSI 14 with sub 30 signal

  3. slightly overdue circle and whiskers/nest of lows

  4. Parabolic SAR bullish break, take green RENKO pullback :laughing:

  5. Average in lower during peak trading hours (why not?). You had another half hour of selling into that 5 hour trough

Im pasting in my chart analysis to back the explanation.

ALSO