I’ve read your two recent posts on the forum and I’ll try to address your main thoughts. I’m not sure what your Hurst Cycles background is and how well you are versed in this method. The primary point I believe you are trying to question is: What is the nature of this bottom we saw for gold in late 2015? And will it get retested or will we see new lows?
To address this concern, I am posting two views of a gold mining stock, Barrick Gold (USD data). The first view is a 30+ year look based on analysis run September 2015. This work suggested an important low was imminent for ABX at the time. The pending low was to be at least a 45 month, 7.5 and 15 year low. The only question is what about the next cycle up? To be discussed.
The second chart is an updated analysis based on today’s close. The low formed in late 2015 appears to be a confirmed major cycle low for the above mentioned cycles. There are perhaps two important questions that remain. Is there a larger cycle say a 2:1 harmonic (eg. 30 year cycle) involved here and did we see a bottom for that as well?. And secondly, if so, is there still a risk of a retest of that low.
In my view, ABX has already likely put in a 15 month low with the December 2016 low, the first from the Oct. 2015 major cycle low. That still means all major cycles discussed here are pointing up. As for the trough to peaks thoughts you raised, please always remember that what you see in the video is always as good as the analysis at hand. So far the projections are proceeding as discussed in the October video. So I have no reason to change or deviate from that work.
Hope that helps.
As for the short term, I am still looking for a March high as mentioned in the $XAU thread, which may/or may not be preceded by a pull back in the coming week or two. This is based on a trough only analysis.