John Oestreich is here 😭


#1

Hi everyone,

I will try to post my analysis here on the $SPX and $TSX in the coming days. This 40 week cycle low that is pending for the stock markets is looking more and more like an event based cycle (ie. US elections).

Its a rainy day here in Toronto so I will have some time today to post some thoughts. But when it gets sunny outside, expect me to vanish for a day or more. Looking forward to sharing our work.

cheers,
john


#2

And you will be joined by some other Crazy Canucks!!


#3

I agree, it could get very very interesting around the time of the election. I have the recent move up as a 40 day…


#4

Hi John I havent looked at a chart in three weeks


#5

Hi @joestreich great to see you here!


#6

OK this is my best view of the $SPX. More details to follow as far as this analysis. But everyone should be expecting a 40 week low here very soon. It can drag on to the US election week. But it is getting very long in the tooth here. The $TSX which I actively invest in broke out to a new high this week. The next stop for the $TSX is all time highs. Relative strength is showing up everywhere on my screens. So a break higher above the 20 day FLD (blue line) is the first sign that the 40 week low is in. I’ve cheated here and pinned the low to October 13th. And of course Sentient Trader is questioning my good judgement. :relaxed:

If cycles drag on here and we do not see a 40 week low print soon, then signs of distribution are starting to show up for US indices. TWT.


Commonality - the South African market
#7

$NYSI - summation index is still dribbling lower. No confirmed low …


#8

John,

I listended to your webinar about gold and would like to ask some questions regarding the Composite Line and how you can be certain is can be used a price forecast.

In the graphs you have a top in gold in 2 years and after a correction another top arrives 2 years later. This looks like a double top, but could be higher or lower, if I am correct. And about your forecast of Hui of 400, this seems very unlikely, as if Gold goes higher after current correction sooner or later, gold will break out of 5 year downtrend line, so reaction could be more explosive than the muted increase you project. (I think previous high or around $1800 should be possible by 2019) Of course an increase of current HUI to 400 is a very nice rally, and falls completely in line with historic rallies before.

Would appreciate your comments,

Alex


#9

Hi Alex,

The composite line is a projection of cycles based on the analysis at hand. So far the analysis is on target in time and price. Note how price is now almost at the 45 month FLD. This is important support. I have no idea if this will work out in reality. I would need to update my work.

The price projection for the HUI into late next year is based on the target generated by 45 month FLD. The conservative target calculated was 340.

Everyone is very bearish the PM space and very optimistic on the USD. We wait for the next opportunity. TWT.

cheers,
john


#10

Hi John,
I’ve only recently started looking at gold and oil and then I remembered one of the webinars with you as guest.
In a webinar somewhere last year you’ve introduced a shorter nominal model for gold with an slightly adjusted harmonic ratio. As far as I can trace, it was only visible up to the 3 day cycle. Is it for the shorter cycles “standard” or have you also adjusted the shorter cycles and their harmonic ratios? Is this model also preferable for oil, because the standard nominal model doesn’t quite fit in my opinion. Hope to hear from you.

Thanks,
Juriaan


#11

Hi Juriaan,

Give me a chance to update my analysis for crude oil. I have not looked at it for many weeks. I’ll address your thoughts about gold as well.

cheers,
john


#12

Hi John
Since hui is now clearly below all # fld s that you presented in your october video and since some important cycle bottoms are expected in march 2017 with a smaller one in january, would you consider the potential of hui dropping seriously into march up to reaching the vtl, this is an extreme 40.?


#13

misu,

See my post on the $XAU thread.

cheers,
john


#14

John
I think that by now i must have watched your october video on gold and the miners over 10 times.
Especially the issue of tops and troughs of the 45 mn cycles in dual analysis on respectively the bottoms of the though cycle and then the top of the top cycles next, the dashed line in your presentation.
The top of the top cycles being only a small top.
This has repeated in all 4 cycles that you have presented.
This plus the7.5 y cycle and all the other parameters are indeed giving a lot of arguments for a bottom in dec. 2015.

However,

There is still one thing that puzzels me.
If you start at the first bottom of the through 45mn cycle on your presentation you will notice that the bottom of the top cycle only comes afterwards.
This makes me think that if we start investigating the new 7,5 y cycle we should start at the moment when BOTH cycles turn.

Now if you start the larger cycles from that moment we have 4 cycles top from top as well as from through cycles and also 4 cycles bottom from top cycles but only 3 through cycles bottoms from the though cycles until now. The 4 th one is coming now , end of february probably.

This makes me wonder if there is still a chance that the 7.5 cycles could expand into a 9 y cycle and therefore that here is still a chance that we might see a new bottom.
If that is the case it could reach the vtl at around 95 i guess.
I admit this would me only an alternative scenario.
This scenario is supported by a number of other tools i use but then again so is the first scenario .

There might be a way to examine the puzzle further.
That is to project the same dual analysis for smaller cycles.


#15

Hi misu

I’ve read your two recent posts on the forum and I’ll try to address your main thoughts. I’m not sure what your Hurst Cycles background is and how well you are versed in this method. The primary point I believe you are trying to question is: What is the nature of this bottom we saw for gold in late 2015? And will it get retested or will we see new lows?

To address this concern, I am posting two views of a gold mining stock, Barrick Gold (USD data). The first view is a 30+ year look based on analysis run September 2015. This work suggested an important low was imminent for ABX at the time. The pending low was to be at least a 45 month, 7.5 and 15 year low. The only question is what about the next cycle up? To be discussed.

The second chart is an updated analysis based on today’s close. The low formed in late 2015 appears to be a confirmed major cycle low for the above mentioned cycles. There are perhaps two important questions that remain. Is there a larger cycle say a 2:1 harmonic (eg. 30 year cycle) involved here and did we see a bottom for that as well?. And secondly, if so, is there still a risk of a retest of that low.

In my view, ABX has already likely put in a 15 month low with the December 2016 low, the first from the Oct. 2015 major cycle low. That still means all major cycles discussed here are pointing up. As for the trough to peaks thoughts you raised, please always remember that what you see in the video is always as good as the analysis at hand. So far the projections are proceeding as discussed in the October video. So I have no reason to change or deviate from that work.

Hope that helps.

As for the short term, I am still looking for a March high as mentioned in the $XAU thread, which may/or may not be preceded by a pull back in the coming week or two. This is based on a trough only analysis.

cheers,
john


#16

Hi John,

I constructed a filter using your harmonic ratios as opposed to those I used on my most recent gold posting on Hurstcycles. The envelope is the same for the 7.5 year wave and longer, however the 80 week wave on the chart below reflects a 6:1 ratio to the 7.5 wave as opposed to the approximately 4:1 that I used for gold. It is not unusual to see dominant price waves with a 3:2 harmonic relationship. Either way your analysis is accurate. The long term trend is up as shown by the envelope and a dominant intermediate wave has put in a higher high and higher low. A VTL connecting the September 2015 low and the December 2016 low will keep you on the right side of the trend.

William


#17


#18

Thanks John.
I agree with your analysis. Just wondering , as you were in October, what the chances of a straddle low now in rhe next month or so would be.

Referring to your video of October again, your 60 year cycle chart actually produced 2 slightly shorter cycles of 53 years and 55 years first, very close to Martin Armstrong pi cycles.
If we project an arrival end of 2018 as you do , then 2 more 7.5 y cycles would give us 2033, very close again to Martin Armstrong apocalypse target of 2032.

One more thing that i have noticed on your dual analysis chart in your video is that not only peaks and through cycles are very clearly playing a clear role as you proved, but that in addition to that it seems that the cross over points of both cycles also produce clear smaller peaks and throughs in most cases and that these specific cross over peaks and bottoms were stopped several times at the vtl.


#19

misu,

Short term update. This is the preferred view and in line with previous work. TWT. Fed meeting provides the drawdown and it could last until the second week of Feb. Still looking for a March high after that as a tradeable high. GLGT.


#20

I fully agree on the mid term and long term view.

For the very short view , next 2 to 5 weeks , i still see 2 slightly different alternatives.

First the one you mentioned. And second a low stratching into februari 21/25 or march 2 th.
I saw that the crossover of both top and bottom cycles that i mentioned earlier just ocurred and produced a retreat and next to that the bottom of the top cycle is on March 2th.

I think that one figure to watch is were we stand on February 6/7, because the vtl reaches a double bottom of 160 at that time.