Natural Gas (NG)


#1

Possibly close to a 18 month nominal low here. Keep an eye on this for a lucrative long, 5 day VTL entry.


#2

Dear david,

which cycle you are trading NG?


#3

Haven’t updated in sometime. But NG is one market I have studied in recent years. Peaks analysis is very important with this instrument and key to success, as is the correct phasing as we know. :slight_smile:

I’m not a commodity bull right here because of the volatility coming into year end for likely all markets, stocks, bonds etc… Oil is likely to test $35, possibly 32? by year end. GLGT.

http://hurstcycles.com/natural-gas-ng-and-qg/#sthash.xZ6ZhPC4.dpbs


#4

SHerif, probably the 80 day cycle with this one although I am not especially strict about that these days. My experience has taught me that interactions with the FLD are the most important aspect and as such I will identify targets using these.


#5

Yeah got long a week ago took some quick profits due to its weakness, was hesitant to hold into that seloff of equities. Lookin at entry on sharp up tick as well, Dave.

Watching for the TSLA bounce on 20 week FLD support and 200 DMA.


#6


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#8

Early days of a possible 18 month nominal bounce in NG. Just at the 40 day VTL. An interaction with the 18 month FLD at 3.6 is a reasonable medium term target if the low is indeed confirmed.


#9

Natgas (QG E-Mini) just made a new low this week. This was something I was looking for if my analysis and phasing was correct. At times when I am unsure I just wait for a development like that to confirm a phasing and the analysis. The big question is the nature of the peak late last year. If it is just a 33 month peak cycle, then more bullish scenarios portend next year. However, if it was a 66 month peak, then natgas here in North America will be pressured for some time to come. I have my own ideas of why fundamentally this could happen and it has to do with oversupply (shale & technology) and an inability to ramp up export of LNG (in a competitive world market).

Looking for a near term low and a bounce into late August or September. The first two charts are a troughs and peaks analysis using my model for natgas.

Looking at the FLDs with this phasing you can see the cascade position is not bullishly aligned. The FLDs were in the opposite configuration last year when I talked about a trade long idea. The reverse is true now.

Here is a peaks analysis with the same look, that is, ideally a low forming in August and a modest bounce which could be a very good short in a few weeks time.


#10

Good stuff Jon, my phasing was incorrect as the 18 month low was not confirmed. Will keep and eye on this in the coming weeks.


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#13

someone who updates the situation. thank you


#14

we are close to the bottom of a 52 week cycle


#15