Need help! Saudi Stock Market TASI


#1

i actually work on analyzing the Saudi stock market “TASI” and another stock “Kayan” by sentient trader for one of Saudi Stock investor which asked for guidance using sentient trader after i illustrated to him the power of hurst analysis … actually i tried many analysis period and i’m not convinced with the result and i doubt the analysis’ result and actually i need help from the experts here for the best period should i use for having a better analysis
here is some pics from the analysis i did and down is the ASCII data files for both instruments … i know it is not useful for you but your support and recommendations is highly appreciated.

this is for TASI

and for Kayan

ASCII for TASI
https://www.4shared.com/file/16lGE-0Zce/TASI.html

ASCII for Kayan
https://www.4shared.com/file/16lGE-0Zce/TASI.html


#2

Hello Sherif, could you upload the csv files here directly? Those links you provided have loads of pop-ups and ads and all kinds of things. Perhaps I’m dumb but I cannot actually get the files! You should be able to upload the csv files here just like you upload the pictures.


#3

Dear David, thanks for your support… the ASCII is down here

TASI
TASI.csv (185.4 KB)

Kayan
Saudi Kayan.csv (86.9 KB)


#4

Hi Sherif

I have only had the time to look at the TASI so far, but I would suggest that a shorter nominal model might work better. Here is what the default analysis looks like with normal NM:

The problem with the analysis is that you get many big peaks and troughs which are phased as shorter wavelength cycles. It might be correct, but is a bit of a warning sign. When I applied a shorter NM (John’s shorter model that he created for gold), you get this:

In my opinion that is a much better analysis. It is interesting that both peaks and troughs seem to work … perhaps because the market is heavily influenced by oil? At any rate the recent peak analysis doesn’t look great. Here it is:

That recent 18-month peak looks a bit awkward, so I tried pinning it:

And interestingly that doesn’t look much better. I think the reason is that market is now working better with synchronized troughs, and not peaks. It is interesting to note that both analyses show the market rising into a 15-week peak.

Here is the workspace so that you can explore the analysis: TASI.mpw (366.2 KB)


#5

Dear David, thanks alot for your help. The shorter nominal model makes sense with TASI than the dafult one … appreciated.


#6

On a Long Term basis the saudi Index fluctuates within the Fractal of Price (0-20.000) . The Gann Octave is 20.000 / 8 = 2.500.

On a Middle Term basis since the Low of March 2009 the Tasi fluctuates within the Fractal of Price (1250- 11.250) = 10000 points . The gann Octave = 10.000 / 8 = 1250 points.

Since July 2014 the Dominant Cycle (Operative Cycle visible on a graph) is 4 / 5 months Long - let’s say in average 4.5 months - 18 / 20 Weeks

it seems that the TASI Index has built a Support on the Lower Limit of the 6 Year Enveloppe (1536 trading Days)


#7

Hi Sherif.

The chart below is a filter analysis of the TASI. The long term price waves are rather unique compared to other stock indices, emphasizing the need to evaluate each index or instrument individually. The shorter waves (not shown) sub-divide very nicely over the past several years which should facilitate with building an accurate custom nominal model in ST.

William


#8

I believe there is still some more data before 2001. Calculation is not correct without the complete data. Roughly I estimate that 1996 - 2009 = 13 years, 2009 + 13 years = 2022. From the trendline, current is moving below the trendline therefore it has a high chance moving to form a new low and trap into long term triangle.


#9

thank you alain, wrandall and goh, you comments and guidance is very helpful.


#10

dear William, you are right and it makes strange peaks and troughs as David said as it is highly related to oil prices, shorter cycles gives clearer pic than the long one as you said and it needs more effort and trying different periods to find the most appropriate one, thanks again


#11

dear Goh, so you recommend dealing with short cycles nominal as David recommended in his post


#12

Dear Sherif,

Please try to look for complete data in order to count more accurate. I roughly count it. I see it has a correlation similar pattern to crude oil. Thus it shall not rise until walk out from triangle. Yes, take fast profit in short cycle and run.

This is crude oil. The column of boxes for top should be equal to bottom under quite certain period of time within these two trendlines. For crude oil, it started to show the bottom boundary now.