Potential 80 Week Lows

Just thought I’d share a couple potential 80 week lows if anyone is interested.

XLE (Weekly View) appears to have broken the recent 20W VTL to the upside indicating the 20W has bottomed as well as the 40W and 80W.

XLE (Daily View) zooms in a bit and shows the same break along with a pullback to that recent 20W VTL for a potential 5W low.

SGG (Weekly View) appears to have broken a 10W VTL to the upside indicating the 10W, 20W, 40W, and 80W have all bottomed.

SGG (Daily View) zooms in a bit and shows the same break along with a pullback to that recent 10W VTL for a potential 5W low.

Just an FYI in case anyone is interested and please feel free to add any feedback or thoughts. I’m just starting this journey and am open to learning anything I’m missing. Thanks!

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I have been watching energy as well. I took a position at the most recent 2.5 wk low in DO. So far, 5 wk cycle is right translated. 2.5/5 wk low is due this coming week. Let’s see where the 5 wk low ends up, then reassess. OIH does not look good which is why I am cautious.

Sugar is similar, also long SGG and we’ll see where the upcoming 5 wk low ends up.

The good news is that the Hurst cycles method provides concrete stop levels so no one can get too hurt. Got into XLE at $65.05 and stopped out at $63.15 for a loss of -2.9% on the position.

Haven’t gotten stopped out of SGG yet as hopefully the 80Wk low call on that position is correct.

However, I’m still learning, so would like to know what went wrong with the XLE position. Any thoughts you guys have would be much appreciated.

I got into the XLE position because it looked like an 80Wk low had been made on 7/7/2017. I thought that because the 20Wk VTL was broken to the upside during the weeks of 7/28 and 8/04. Should I have waited for an FLD break instead? Were there other signs I should have looked for?

I took a similar trade and here is how I traded it. I used DO. I took notice on the VTL break and then waited for the first 2.5 wk low. I went Long DO on 7/25. I exited on 8/8 flat. I could have taken partial profits which I probably should have given the dubious looking charts in the OIH.
That was a clue to be very cautious.

When I trade an ETF I look through the top 10 holdings. There you can see if all stocks in the group are participating or just a few. I like to pick the individual stock with the best looking chart. On 8/8 the OIH made new lows and even though DO was not close to its previous low, commonalty made me sell it because it will likely be taken down at some point with the rest.
I hate trading any stocks with earnings announcements and usually avoid them and as I recall several energy stocks had earnings due around the end of July or so.

But regardless with any stock, I monitor the overall market because of commonality. If there is an underlying commodity I usually track that as well.

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IBM could have just made an 80W low. It made its 80 week high the first week of March. It has been coming down ever since even though the market has been making new highs. IBM hit it’s Hurst projected 20W target perfectly. Did not make it to its 40W target. IBM broke its 20W VTL this week, which would tell us that the probability is high that it made it’s 20W, 40W, and 80W lows during the last week of August.

I purchased at $145.79. My stop is at $138.94. Risking 4.7% on this trade. Risking 1.7% of entire portfolio on trade.

Please feel free to share any comments as I’m always up for learning!

You can now also get in at a better price than I did if you want. :slight_smile:

Union Pacific Railroad (UNP) has also appeared to make an 80W low during August. I did not get in this one, but was one I was tracking. Could provide some additional weight to making the SPX 80W low in August as well?

Schlumberger (SLB) could have just made an 80W low the last week of August as well. Just broke a 20W VTL this week. I feel like waiting to see if this one pulls back at all into a 5W low to get in on.

Qualcomm (QCOM) may have put in an 80W low the week of 9/8/2017. VTL now broken.