RTY Medium/Short Term Forecast

I’m kind of using this forum as an online diary. Comments are appreciated and criticism is welcome. Please let me know if this is unintended usage.

The market drama continues!

RTY
The 80 Day is a bit foggy…is the 80 day in yet? I’m leaning to No and we may have one more push down into the later part of this month.

20 Day Interaction here. The single question mark count is technically possible but I’m leaning to the double ?? count.

Hi Greg,

I like your use of RTY. As I have said several times on this forum, the cyclic signature of this index is sometimes slightly more evident than other stock indices. This is because it is a “flatter” index that is not pushed around by a handful of large, volatile names. It also has a tendency to lead other markets at turning points.

There have been some short, high amplitude waves dominating price over the last two weeks which have caused some confusion and price choppiness (see Gary’s recent post for details).

Here’s my phasing (sorry it is trading days but I am in a hurry). Looks like G is happening now and H is coming up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had an up day tomorrow before we start sliding down the FLD.

Looking at a weekly close chart with a 2 period FLD is even clearer. In fact, you don’t even need the FLD.

Curt

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I’ll take this 1 step further, just an observation…

Extend the 24-26 calendar day period back from the 5/31/19 low and that period timed the previous 4 highs nearly perfect.

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Consider also the low on 15th Aug may be the 80 day nominal low, even though it is a higher low on some indices. Check out the FTSE and DAX. There is a 5 day low giving the bullish move this morning, hopefully will confirm which phasing in the next few days.

Dave

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My mock up of IF the 80 day nominal low came in on 8/15…this is now my preferred.
Sorry that it’s messy. My expert model building skills need work but this is the analysis.

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Yes this is my preferred analysis now too. US markets are fairly near the highs already so I think it will be a sideways move to the 80 day FLD and the G cat interaction in the context of the 40 week cycle. Then a tasty move down…

I am expecting a shortened 10 wk cycle given equities are 35 weeks from the previous low. INDU 24,400 is the low end of the target where I would start to consider buying. Selling 26,400. 10%, nothing major at this point.

As of 8/22 market open, I’m going to continue to stand aside. It certainly looks like the 80 day could be in but the 20 day FLD is sure acting more like a G than an A. Still have a very valid count that has one more push down into Monday for the 80 day. It just needs to tip it’s hand now.

My 20d (purple) and 5w (red) waves using filters as of yesterday’s close (S&P). Things got a little weird with the short waves on that big move down and hence the confusion.

My 10d+20d+5w composite wave.

RTY weekly close with 2 period FLD (noise filter check). I don’t believe in labels but if I had to put one on this chart it would be G with H to come.

I use a different nominal model than you guys but it shouldn’t impact these short waves much.

Careful.

It seems like the count showing one more push down is going to end up being the correct version. Here is my updated 20 Day FLD, and a 10 Day FLD drilling in a bit. Looks like the 80 day will be Monday or very early in the week. (Possible weekend turn?)

There are a few markets which have made new lows - this one, FTSE, Nikkei etc and a few which have found more support at the 40 week FLD as expected but not made nominal new lows. This is amplitude modulation in action and as Hurstonians we must assess which is the most likely place for the 80 day low according to commonality. That said, we can just work with a 20 day cycle margin of error until we can see evidence of FLD interactions that support the above phasing or assess from the next 40 day cycle low. What is totally clear is that we are in the final 10 week cycle of the current 40 week cycle, due to bottom October. Should be good and I look forward to the plethora of media rationalisations for the fall then. :smiley:

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My current 80 day FLD interaction count

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