S&P Long Term Cycle Phasing

"I have been trading LONG… Russell "
Good for you, we are in the 1st half of the bullish 20 week cycle. 1st week of June looks good for a 10 week cycle bottom. After that, up we go in to July 4th. Hope you don’t mind a little red arrow on my chart, it is only indication of incoming 10 weeks cycle bottom is imminent. Not an indication for the short trade.

RUSS

The interpretation is very simple, we are in a very bullish 10 week cycle as expected for a first 10 week cycle in the 40 week cycle. Up we go into July 4th?

1 Like

The 100 Pandemic Cycle. Let’s look at 50 year second harmonic. Going back 50 years to 1968.

  1. 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic
  2. MLK assassination riots
  3. Nixon won a plurality of the popular vote by a narrow margin, but won by a large margin in the Electoral College Election of 1968 was a major realigning election as it permanently disrupted the New Deal socialists coalition that had dominated presidential politics since 1932.

Hey Becker. Your models seem spot on. Curious how you derive the function of your composite line. Also, it looks like the red/blue sinusoids are pure sinusoids? They seem pretty spot on in phase. Anything you would care to share in your methods? I’ve been using bandpass filters and fourier analysis of the highest frequencies within the filter band to project a particular wave forward. It’s usually pretty good, but appears as a beat note type of wave that has variable amplitude. Working on making that into a composite line. Anyway great work!

Sincerely,

BillC

p.s. there’s nothing that I saw in that link about hydroxychloroquine that said any data was exposed as a fake, unless I missed it.

Hello Bill,
For starters if you read the article carefully, it says “World Health Organization (WHO) resumed a study looking into whether the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine could be effective in treating COVID-19.” The argument to stop a hydroxychloroquine study was the publication of a Lancet study on May 22, which found that the drug did not improve survival among patients. That study is now discredited.

“appears as a beat note type of wave that has variable amplitude” It is all about finding radically new way to normalize variable amplitudes. No, it is not pure sinusoids. Thus it is not fourier. A hint, consider importance of cycle shape and noise

Thanks b3cker. I did notice that it said they had resumed the study, but didn’t realize that it had been discredited. There is so much fake news out there all over the place and it all seems to depend on politics.

I’ll have to consider the “cycle shape and noise” comment. Thanks!

  • BillC

stocks that entered sideways into their last 20 day cycle low: AMD BYND what else there are so many inversions, people taking long volatility positions today, look at SHOP setting up again, SPY just cant offer these types of abnormal scenarios

SPX daily 20 weeks cycle

Not sure why we are building models?
In 1872 George Tritch documented a strategy for when to Buy and Sell stocks over the next 200 years. While Buy and Hold performed better, it is pretty impressive that a strategy documented almost 150 years ago had a 91% hit rate


image

I am also considering the 20 wk low on 6/26/20. The next couple of days should clear it up. The minimum criteria that I use has been satisfied, so it certainly is possible.

I think you are correct. Price low 6/26 may be classified as 20 week, next 20 weeks cycle will be clearly subdivided into 2 ten week cycles. That is 10 week amplitude may be greater then amplitude of 20 week cycle. So this 10 week cycle high may also be a 20 week cycle high

Are you referring to the top for this 5 week cycle?

You gotta think we should see new highs in August.

My model phasing projects August to be a down month into 20 week cycle low.

$INDU Daily

10 week cycle overlayed with price and the 10 week FLD. I have observed some 20 week cycles do have 3, 10 week cycles. Those long 20 week cycles are usually 23 weeks and would put the 20 week early September +/- (near Sept. 5th on your chart). Certainly plausible. For now, I am trading long side, buying pullbacks as the daily trend is up.

$INDU Weekly view

Crossing the 40 wk FLD (-19) this week.

$INDU Daily…

Red bars indicate a declining 2.5wk cycle. Besides the run up after the previous 10 week cycle in May, generally profitable. I don’t specifically use this strategy; however, this week I would expect weakness and consider shorting rallies. The final 1.25wk low may have occurred 7/17 of the 5 week cycle.

Here we go. Looks like a good 20 weeks top setup. Expected to be confirm.
Nothing spectacular. 20 week top has a right translation, so trend is still up but pull back never the less.

SPY Daily…

I am anticipating the 5 week low early next week. I am looking for a short setup tomorrow, likely from higher prices. I will assess how much selling there is into the next low to determine what to do from there. Then there is end of month/beginning of month to deal with as well.

I am not sure why are you posting obviously short term signals on the more or less traditional Hurst, longer term trends page? It is my understanding you have your own page were you post short term trades. 5 week cycle is to small to track on the daily chart. I am sure you are using hourly time frame, I would.
You are welcome to comment on 20 week cycle anytime.

My assumption for some time, 54 month cycle “price” low was in March. Sharp volatility explosion in March has produced a shock to the system and cycles needed time to adjust, as they always do. We should rally into November 40 week mominal cycle high.

After the rebuild, the daily DJIA model is pointing up, and 20 week cycle price low is behind us (July 31st.)