S&P Long Term Cycle Phasing

Hello b3cker,

Do you have dates for that chart? Here’s my forecast thru May 2020.

Forecast anything longer then model’s smallest cycle is probably contra productive. Forecasting, with precision ,10 days on the daily chart and 10 weeks on the weekly chart should be sufficient. Well I could, but then why would I? The important point both models should be in sync.

and weekly

My model has identified Dec 2 as a 10 week cycle high with in a 20 week cycles structure that should have right translation so last week of January or 1st week of February seems to be a good target for the 20 week cycle high

So is it a 20 weeks top? Is it last week of January, well almost. Probably not very relevant in a bull market, and depending on your risk aversion it is best to check back sometime end of April -1st week of May where downside action should intensify or sometime in the middle of July for a long trade. Enough time to get prepared and as we get closer to the critical time acquire higher precision in the process.



Feels like a support at a nominal 40 week channel, after digesting some of this volatility we should see reaction to upside before moving lower into nominal 18 month cycle low in the summer.


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Channels are good in the cyclical markets only. If cyclical picture is unclear, (almost always with time
frames less then 30 min) do not use channels. Basic concept is easy to understand. There is infinite
number of cycles present in any stock fluctuation.Well it is kind of hard to deal with infinity. That is why traders when counting from low to low or from high to high quickly abandon idea as useless. The Hurst
channel simplifies this job and it is nothing more and nothing less then an integration tool (remember math). Hurst introduces phasing to the cycle analysis. Middle line of any Hurst channel represent sum of all the cyclical components with length greater than thelength of the centered moving average used to construct the channel, all the smaller components are reduced or eliminated completely. How this does helps us? From now on we are not concern with infinite number of cycles, all we want to know is when cycles get in phase. This event from one phasing low to next phasing low we will call a wave. Be advised waves do change in length and magnitude but more gradual and orderly compared to a cycle.
I would use 3 channels: child, parent, and grandparent. Child always has a hard time stopping the
price action. You can see price piercing child’s channel this failure always confirmed by any momentum study (length of channel) in this case 20 bars. When the child and parent fail there is almost 85% chance that grandparent will support the price. What is the
practical use one would ask?

  1.  Always set you stop to the length of the channel you trade.
  2.  Parent denotes dominant wave.
  3.  Grandparent is your friend sorry trend. 

This 3 channel method reminds me of how Alain Vauthier (parisboy) handles the problem of nonperiodic cycles. Is it a direct adaptation from Hurst?

Also I admire your sang-froid in the face of the steepest drop in the S&P since 2008. I guess we will see how the market reacts to reassurances from the powers that be.

It is only an observation, after studying cycles for over 35 years.

“sang-froid in the face of the steepest drop”

Is a rudimental Gann. Price vectors do persist. Steepest declines in price are usually shortest in time. Worst declines are slow, boring (low volume) and painful.

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There’s no substitute for experience.

Looks like next target is 2,812.50 and resistance is 3,125.00

Last 2 9 year cycle lows. Not saying we are there, but it is looking more and more that the expected cycle low is larger magnitude than just a 18 month cycle

"What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun."
Ecclesiastes 1:9

I would say it is looking more and more like that.

20 week bottom is next week. Should be good for a bounce. All kind of nasty targets later this year.


Is the ‘bounce’ the period between Mar. and June?


If we are to continue at current rate of decline SP will be below 0 in 10 weeks. This rate is not sustainable.
Below is my ‘Doomsday’ indicator.
Counter trend move should take market higher into Aprill. It is hard to say how long it will last or how big this reaction is going to be. Recent dramatic changes to volatility effecting daily model making daily model less reliable, So we have to step back and look at the monthly and weekly models and use other tools.

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I agree with you heartily.

So panic it is --> referer

Major support and needs to hold or else.