S&P Long Term Cycle Phasing

Volatility is 5 times normal. Not catching this falling knife, but the bounce is coming. SP needs to post higher high on the daily chart to confirm

Hi becker,

Interesting and seemingly very accurate) predictions on that table. Can you list the source material? I haven’t read any real Gann stuff, just highlights, but it seems kind of intriguing now!

  • Bill C

Current look at my statistical digital filter nests and my interpretation of nests/cycle bottoms using the digital Butterworth BP filters with a 25% cutoff width about Hurst’s original Nominal Model. This is after backfilling and using interpolated calendar days. That’s why you won’t see any gaps in the price bars.

Ticker Symbol: SPX
Timeframe (td/cd/w/m/y): cd
Hurst Cycle Report using Butterworth Filters
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Ave       Std       Stat      Stat      Mean      Min       Max       
Period    Dev       Min       Max       L10 Per   L10 Per   L10 Per   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
10w Cycle (68.2cd) | 531 samples
63.42     11.44     44.59     82.25     66.43     50.00     78.00     
Last 3 Filter troughs: 14-Dec-2019 /02-Feb-2020 /17-Mar-2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------
5w Cycle (34.1cd) | 1064 samples
31.63     5.84      22.01     41.24     30.00     27.00     33.00     
Last 3 Filter troughs: 02-Jan-2020 /01-Feb-2020 /02-Mar-2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------
20d Cycle (16.5cd) | 2184 samples
15.41     2.85      10.73     20.09     14.14     12.00     15.00     
Last 3 Filter troughs: 13-Feb-2020 /28-Feb-2020 /14-Mar-2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------
10d Cycle (8.6cd) | 4198 samples
8.02      1.55      5.46      10.58     6.71      5.00      8.00      
Last 3 Filter troughs: 29-Feb-2020 /07-Mar-2020 /14-Mar-2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------
5d Cycle (4.31cd) | 8294 samples
4.06      0.87      2.64      5.49      3.29      2.00      4.00      
Last 3 Filter troughs: 08-Mar-2020 /12-Mar-2020 /16-Mar-2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Last Data Point: 18-Mar-2020

Seems to imply that the bottom is not in regarding cyclic influence.

  • BillC

The problem with Gann material - is a lot of fluff pushed by unscrupulous gurus. His own writings are intentionally convoluted and often misleading. The table is based on 19 year cycle (Astronomy). Murrey math helps and it is kind of a derivative from Gann theories.

“‘Has any man ever made a large fortune out of Wall Street and kept it, Mr. Watson?’ ‘Oh, yes,’ he replied, ‘if there were not exceptions to the rule, business would not continue to run. I could tell you of dozens of them, but one striking example is that of the late E. H. Harriman who died worth about three hundred million dollars. He had probably made out of the market a hundred million dollars in the last three or four years of his life.’ Robert asked, ‘How did he do it?’ Mr. Watson answered, 'He stuck to one class of stocks — railroads. He studied them day and night, never diverted his attention to other lines. I believe that he possessed some mathematical method which enabled him to forecast stocks many months and years in advance. I have gone over his manipulations and the stocks he traded in, and found that they conform closely to the law of harmonic analysis . He certainly knew something about time and season because he bought at the right time and sold at the right time.” (pp. 204-205)"
W.D. Gann

And yet, the only information Gann had no disclosed, not even mention in his books or very expensive classes was information about harmonic cycle analysis.

"I am sharing for the first time revelation of Gann’s discovery in 1909, where he said this is based on principle without which no telegraphic communications would have been possible and also

“In making my predictions I use geometry and mathematics, just as an astronomer does, based on immutable laws which I have discovered”"

The telegraphic principle is based on doubling and halving the frequency of waves and when they are in confluence then effect is pronounced otherwise they are cancelling in nature…

"“When the time cycle is up, neither Republican, Democrat, nor our good President Hoover can stem the tide. It is a natural law. Action equals reaction in the opposite direction. We see it in the ebb and flow of the tide and we know that from the full bloom of summer follows the dead leaves of winter.”

“People believed that the Government by buying cotton, wheat and loaning money could stop the depression, but when once a cycle is up and prices are due to decline, nothing can stop them until it has run its course. The same when the main trend turns up, neither government interference nor anything else can stop the advance until it runs its course.”

“There is no top and bottom price which cannot be determined by mathematics. Every market movement is the result of a cause and when once you determine the cause, it is easy enough to know why the effect is as it is.” [9]

“‘I figure things by mathematics,’ Mr. Gann explained. ‘There is nothing mysterious about any of my predictions. If I have the data I can use algebra and geometry and tell exactly by the theory of cycles when a certain thing is going to occur again.’”
W.D. Gann

Appreciate the follow up. Looks like he is mainly in support of the Hurst concepts with a couple of different ways to execute and predict.

Thanks.

  • BillC

Hurst has never explained why nominal model looks this way and not any another. Gann mentions "The telegraphic principle is based on doubling and halving the frequency of waves”. Also, Gann helps with an estimate of price targets. Gann was ahead of Hurst in cycles research and mentions important principals like for example superposition of cycles.

"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions.”

W.D. Gann

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W.D. Gann

Nonlinear cycles - W.D. Gann 100 Pandemic Cycle vs DJIA


Saturn-Pluto (x3) 100.25 Years

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Hi an analysis on ELLIOT, I am seeing a finished ABC correction heading into a implusive wave 3 down. anybody seeing that on Hurst cycles? TY mark

I am not saying that my hurst model is perfect, however it has high probability of being on target.

Occasionally Elliot count can be uncanny and help in overall understanding of the market, more often, it has at list two important flows:

  1. It is a challenge to find 2 Elliot wave practitioners subscribing to the same count. Etc.
    Elliot wave is very subjective.
  2. Think about it. Why Hurst cycles? It is obvious is’t it?
    Elliot wave does not know how to deal with time. After all those great fibonacci projection, Elliotion does not know how to project price targets in time. Is market going to retest recent bottom a month or in a year?

Crash type change in volatility is a challenge. Models tend to get less reliable on some time frames.
I always look for confluence on at list 2 time frames.

SP is going into nominal 10 week cycle low. Call it a test of the March lows, but for now I think March low will hold and pull back may retrace 62.5%-66.0% of the upside swing.

It feels like after flush crash volatility is finally normalizing. Hurst model is getting closer to nominal.

Into 10 week cycle low

I have a slightly different phasing…

I have 5/14 as the 10 wk. Some discrepancies regarding the 1.25/2.5wk cycles. I have been trading LONG… Russell STOP below 1315.90, most recent 1.25wk low

EDIT 5/28/20 Long Exited…

"I have been trading LONG… Russell "
Good for you, we are in the 1st half of the bullish 20 week cycle. 1st week of June looks good for a 10 week cycle bottom. After that, up we go in to July 4th. Hope you don’t mind a little red arrow on my chart, it is only indication of incoming 10 weeks cycle bottom is imminent. Not an indication for the short trade.

RUSS

The interpretation is very simple, we are in a very bullish 10 week cycle as expected for a first 10 week cycle in the 40 week cycle.