Silver (XAGUSD) (EOD)


#1

Controversial phasing I know with the cycle low NOT being the price low but I really like this analysis with the potential 18 month (nominal) FLD support. Thought I’d share with my fellow Hurstonians. Same for Gold.


#2

Update to this particular phasing of Silver, weekly view. Support came from the 18 month FLD and the 54 month FLD. Late summer (UK summer!) for the next 18 month low when it could be a splendid buy, along with the other shiny stuff.


#3

Hi Dave,

Metals troughing with stocks this summer? Maybe the inflation trade has gotten ahead of itself. I’ll post something on bonds if I get time. They are behaving better lately. Do you use the same nominal model for everything or do you create a different ICM for each instrument you trade?

Curt


#4

I usually use both methods Curt. Using experience and evidence I opt for the one which seems appropriate. The original nominal model is most often the most reliable but you must be a little more flexible with regard to placing troughs and peaks etc. A cycle low is not always the price low…its the art part of a phasing analysis.

The FLD is by far the most powerful tool at our disposal.

Dave


#5

Silver coming down into a 20 week low. I would expect support at the 40 week FLD and VTL. Peak phasing is in question but only so far as whether the recent 40 week is an 18 month too. Still looking at a buy late summer, especially if it goes sideways between now and then.


#6

Hi David

Even though my phasing is slightly different than yours, I agree that the miners and metals are cycling down into the 20 week low. What is interesting to me is that 40 week wave appears to forming a triangle in the miners and silver. I need to be more attentive if I enter longs at the 20 week low. A downward break of the 40 week triangle implies a continuation lower. I’ll just let the price action tell what to do!

William


#7

Hi William,

Yes definitely if am to get long in Silver it will be at the 18 month low, as long as it holds the previous 18 month low. Not touching this 20 week. Patience!

Dave


#8

Hi David

You have to wait quite a while for the next 80 week low. I’ve been experimenting with different ways of using ST with the gracious permission of the ST people (I’m not a license holder). The first chart below is a silver close chart with the longer waves subtracted. The blue moving average is a rough approximation of the 20 week wave. The second chart is zoomed in showing the potential action signal FLD for the 20 week wave.

William


#9

Bought shares/ etfs and will keep adding if we have a confirmed low.
cheers,
john


#10

it seems gold has found a support, but I still have May 13 and May 22 as safer day to enter long trade. The bigger question is how far this cycle will take Gold. Still think the pressure from the monthly chart is not over. Ultimately it all depends on the point of view and horizon for potential long trade.


#11

It is going to be a good day in the precious metals space. Been hunting for this low and had added Gold share ETFs late last week. Big divergences and relative strength for things like GDX into yesterday’s low. The only thing unknown is what the coming Hurst 20 week cycle will look like. I follow a 23 week cycle as established with William and others here.

cheers,
john


#12

GDX is going to hit some resistance soon. This is going to be a one day wonder for precious metals if the Euro does not show some life and think about that one year trendline sitting at about 1.101 above.


#13

Hi John.

Here is what the junior miners look like with the 20 week wave isolated. There is a high probability that one of the next two 20 day lows will be the 20 week low. A break of the 20 day FLD (purple line) should be a reasonable action signal. For those of us who can watch intraday, the 20 day wave can be isolated in a similar manner using intraday data for a very precise entry as close to the absolute low as possible.

William


#14

William,

Beautiful chart. I’ve been wondering how a summer high could be made here and July has come up in many looks with ST.

Glad to see you are working with Sentient Trader. Combining that now with your bandpass filter work, you are going to kill it. :lifter:

cheers,
john


#15

Thanks John!

The next 20 week high is due in the July/August time frame. It should be relatively easy to see.

My use of Sentient Trader is only temporary (thank you ST folks) . I wanted to see how closely correlated the two approaches are. I’ve always known that they are, given the right circumstances.

William


#16

Silver bounced off the VTL connecting the 54M low proposed in the original post and the 40 week low, further supporting the ‘controversial’ phasing outlined above. If that VTL was invalid (and therefore phasing) there would have been no reaction. The price low not being the cycle low in the PMs…

Shorter term a probable 20 week bounce is going to hit resistance at the 40 day FLD I think. I feel a triangulation is on the cards up to the 20 week peak July Aug time.

Dave


#17

Just seeking clarification, David. When you say ‘a probable 20 week bounce’ do you mean the in-progress bounce off the May low?


#18

Yes, look at the phasing. Its the obvious nest of lows below the current bounce.

Dave


#19


#20

Serene progress in this instrument. Bit of a flash crash last week which I ignore as the ‘low’. That said the position of price relative to the FLD is the sweetspot for an 80 day cycle trough.