Slim's Post or ORCL 3/20/18


#1

Oracle traded 10% lower today

The company reported earnings per share of $0.83 and total revenue of $9.77 billion, compared to analyst expectations of $0.72 and $9.78 billion.

However, the outlook for the remainder of the year was below expectations, as was revenue related to its cloud services line. Also, the company took a $6.9 billion charge related to the recent tax reform measure.

More downside ahead?

ORCL turned negative at the end of last year and then managed a double top, as shown on the chart below. Our cycle analysis suggests lower prices into June, with possible targets at $44 then $41.

The market cycles are designated by the semicircles at the bottom of the chart.

image


#2

ORCL 2 Big Parabolic Moves


#3


#4

Thanks for sharing! That long-term chart shows the cycle shapes nicely.

I do respect the quality of the charting I see here. What I don’t see is a forecast. Am I missing that? Also, at the low, the time of the most nested cycles is not THE low. So that is confusing to me. And since I do not give credence to any cycle that has not repeated at least 3 times, there is not enough data there to validate that longest cycle. on the"Big Parabolic Moves." And the most recent low, in 2016, does not show any nesting with a longer-term cycle. So to me, forecasting seems difficult with this information.

Please don’t take this as criticism. I am very open to learning and sharing.


#5

Slim I am not a big fan of Cycle Analysis ! :grinning: and of Hurst Phasing Analysis :grinning:

All this reminds me too much of Elliottician’s discussions.

However I am a big fan of Hurst tools : Centered Moving Averages Crossings, Future Line of Demarcation , Envelopes, Valid Trend Lines; Action Signal, Mid-Band and Edge-Band Trading

As for the chart you should learn to “milk” a chart.

On the chart you can easily notice that the Low of the FLD pattern generated by Sentient Trader (in green) and the Lower Limit of the Envelope 256 TU seems to coincide.

This means that a Low is probable in this area - could we call that a “forecast”

Then after that we could “forecast” an UP move up to the Top of the FLD pattern (in red) and may be the Upper limit of the same Envelope.

If you are interested my thread on Forex Factory :slight_smile:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=709088


#6

I am SOOO with you on the Elliot comparison.
Actually, the way I use the cycle brackets is similar to using an FLD.
Thanks for your explanation.


#7

Slim with the Envelope Methodology you can rationalize the Hierarchization of the “Waves”


#8

same thing for Harmonic Patterns

or " Cycles"


#9

Very nice!
Thanks for sharing.


#10

Actually, your way of illustrating does a nice job of showing cycle configuration and translation.


#11

Where do I start? Oracle is a great vehicle lends it self well to any cyclical analysis and especially to Hurst. I suppose you can do well even with paper and a pencil.

Monthly. 40 month cycle is topping, but we have reached or very close to 14 month cycle bottom. The point is ; safest trade in Oracle is yet to come, short next 14 month cycles top.


and Gorst

Weekly. Here is what good Barthel score a bit of physics can do for you.

Same model, but forecast was made with data delayed 80 weeks. No bad?


#12

ORACLE Envelopes 24 H / 1 minute


#13

ORACLE Envelopes 5 Days / 5 minutes


#14

ORACLE 1 MONTH / 30 minutes

ORACLE 3 MONTHS / 1 H / 60 minutes

ORACLE 6 MONTHS / 2 H / 120 minutes


#15

ORACLE 1 Year / Daily


#16

ORACLE 5 years / Weekly


#17

Certainly good old Fibonacci is great to grab an opportunity.


#18

Slim

Oracle Price Action fluctuates within the Gann Fractal of Price (0-50)

Octave = 50 / 8 = 6,25

Division by 8 of the Fractal of Price graphed mimics very closely a parabolic curve and the Fibonacci serie

with the Octave and its harmonics or subharmonics you can build the Envelopes (Hurst Dominancy Envelopes or Hurst Bands)


#19

Hello Slim, that is we agree on.
Daily m&m


and weekly


#20

Thanks for sharing.
This may be intuitive to you. What I don’t see is forecasts. How does one trade withing projections of time and price?

You can see by my question, I am very old school, doing cycle analysis by hand and projecting off the analysis.

Thanks again,
Respectfully