So What... B-Side FLD strategy 2.0

So what is my initial risk / contract on the recent 1.25 wk FLD cross…

About $3,275 / contract… A bit higher than we’ve seen recently

And then from the 3-4 day FLD…

About $1,630 / contract… more manageable

ES… Daily.

2.5 wk FLD targets @ 3026.50. Placing a stop on either side of the blue bar sometimes can be a nice trade. It’s the pivot for the short term trend.

Price stopping @ 5 wk FLD. Also noted is horizontal resistance at the monthly high @ 2994.50.

I have the most recent 1.25 wk low on 10/9. A bit earlier than expected, but still within the tolerance. Using the low from 10/3 of at least 2.5 wk nested the next low may be as early as 10/16. Using 10/9 as the 1.25 wk the best overlap is on 10/18.

The strcuture of the McO is improving and the Summation is changing direction. This structure can indicate an important bottom, but confirmation can only come a bit later. Aggressive traders will likely buy the dip, though at this time I’ll just observe price and see if there is a setup either way. If price can break the 5 wk FLD and overcome 2994.50, test of top will not be far behind.

ES…

The low early this morning likely the nominal 5 day. Aggressive traders that want to get long can use the high of the yellow bar + 1 tick for a BUY STOP. This 2.5 wk cycle is showing right translation so a test of the most recent high is the target. Those that are bearish may use a failure of any test or a break of the FLD.

Since the daily trend is neutral, I will wait for the longer cycle later this week for the next trade. I view any consolidation just under the 5 wk, bullish.

BUY STOP @ 2977.25 would have worked with target achieved in 2 bars.
One can either sell at the target @ 2994 or switch to a shorter time frame for an exit. For example, placing a trailing stop beneath the low of the 5 min bar.

Median price cross of the 5 wk FLD up against monthly resistance here. Target @ 3097. 2.5 wk FLD target @ 3026.50. Long entry @ the next 1.25 wk low.

5 & 10 day nominal FLD. Short term neutral trend with blue bar, red is next. By the morning looking for at least 1 red bar and below the red FLD. That’s the setup with the daily now in an uptrend.

Sequence reboot after support from the 3-4 day FLD. Very rarely does the 2.5 wk low not accompany a downward cross of the 3-4 day FLD.

An overview of the daily on most indices shows price up against opening monthly resistance. except NQ. Interesting note on NQ is its Aug price low was more squewed towards the begining of the month as opposed the small caps.

ES

Progression stopped at the blue bar. Red bars were seen in the INDU & NQ

LONG @ 2999. Target 3022. Risk $1182

5 wk FLD target @ 3097.

ES…

I’m changing the phasing just slightly. 10 wk low 10/3. 1.25 wk moved to 10/14 and the 1.25/2.5wk nested 10/22. The INDU/NQ made lower lows while everything else made higher highs. I’ll use the previous as the alternate. The last 2, 4 day lows have been 4 days 8 hrs. The 2.5 wk can be extended by 1 more 3-4 day cycle and still be within variance. So it looks like I was a bit early on the trade.

Target 3026 - 3031.

2.5 wk FLD provided support here.

EDIT:Moved stop to 2998.50

EDIT: lower target 3026 achieved, switching to lower time frame for potential exit.

EDIT:Side note, purchased last BTC round to day $7600. Will not add anymore at this time. Waiting to see if the $7500 area holds.

ES quick update

Same progression…Price drops below the 3-4 day FLD, Red bars show up (though not always, but when they do… a low is close) price breaks back up through FLD.

Today was likely the last 1.25 wk low (if the previous was 10/23 and not 10/18) before the next 5 wk nest ideally due next week. 11/5.

Let’s see who shows up on the first 3 trading days of November, buyers or sellers taking price into the 5 wk.

Long from @2999 will likely sell the front half of this 1.25 wk cycle.

Out on a cross of 3-4 day FLD @ 3032. + 33 pts

Was 11/8 the 5 wk low?

A move back to the 0 line and a pause in the summation would indicate an approaching low despite the price action.

ES 240min…

5 wk FLD target of @3096 was achieved on 11/7/2019, projected from 10/15

Friday did show some red bars as price approached the 3-4d FLD, but never crossed below.

So any new high in price with an uptick of the McO will indicate the 5 week low has been seen. Otherwise, a pullback Sunday, Monday with a cross below the 3-4d FLD will indicate the 5 wk low ahead.

16 min chart…

I have set up a 16 minute chart tracking the shorter cycles to evaluate consistency/tradeability. 26hr, 5hr, 240min. While I am evaluating this, I switched to MicroES futures. I may switch to this contract so I can trade multiple contracts. Liquidity seems decent so far for my purposes. Cycle nest of 5hr, near 13:20 yesterday, went long @ 3083.75 after a higher 13 min low and sold near 3086 the FLD target. Initial risk was only 1.25 pts.
Looks like news distorts these cycles which temporarily alters phasing(@9AM 11/8, but after a higher 5hr low next cycle, trend resumed up into the close).

Still evaluating intraday cycles… trading the 160min/5hr nest while keeping tract of the 26 hr seems reasonable. No short trades, just long today. 6.25 MES pts from 2 trades today.

@YM

Here is the 1.25 wk cycle. Take you pick for the 5 wk low. 10/31 or 11/11.

40,43,38,40,43 bars per 1.25 wk cycle.