SP 40 Week Trough Incoming?


#1

Here analisys of SP 500, maybe trough in the mid november and target 2000 to hit 40 W Fld ?
.


Crude Oil the same seems is going to form 40 W trough in the mid of nov too


#2

Thanks Rodolfo, I had a similar phasing in oil with the 20 week up there, I don’t like it though. Sidelined on that market. Indices yes thats a similar phasing to mine. I think we may see support at the 40 week FLD


#3

I agree the index analysis looks great … a “beautiful picture”. Oil has that long stretched 173-day cycle which is either resolved as you’ve done with a 20-week + 40-day, or is just a long 20-week.
Here’s another take on oil (this is WTI) with a different analysis, but the same expectation of a 40-week trough coming up:


#4

The $SPX can’t break above the 20 day FLD so more time of sideways down. Looks as if this will go right to US election day. But should be springing out of a 40 week low from there. The $TSX is making a new high this week and I have been trying to catch Canadian names showing relative strength (quite a few breakouts and P&F signal buys). The $TSX is in a good bull market, the US indices are not.


#5

John, where is the 18 month peak in this analysis? I agree the 40 week is imminent but if we have seen an 18 month peak there needs to be a move to an 18 month trough.


#6

Hi David,

The last 18 month cycle peak should have been August 2016. The one prior would have to have been May 2016. Actual cycle period is obviously shorter than Hurst’s nominal 18 month cycle at something like 14-15 months. Bear in mind that I believe the $SPX left a 4.5 and 9 year cycle low behind in February 2016. Actual cycle periods I follow for this is then something near 7 - 7.2 years and 45 months as active cycles. TWT.


#7

Regarding Oil, I like the 20 week low in early August, and expect the 40 week in January.

Bryan


#8

An update from my view. FLD 80 D is doing support, 20 W FLD resistance. Cycles are going to their trough for mid november;

if 40 D VLT will be cross, 2000 SP target could be possible ?


#9

Rodolfo, I would be looking at what FLD/VTL support is below price for a good target.


#10

Maybe 48 M VTL could be?


#11

Id consider the 40 week FLD first. Check where the timing is for the low when it approachces that FLD.


#12

40 W FLD target has shown in hte first chart at the top of this thread. 2000 could be possible


#13

Indeed, thats correct.


#14

Hi John.

My analysis of the 80 week wave shows approximately the same thing. The 80 week wave shortened over the most recent 4 year cycle due to its reduced amplitude. It is not clear quite yet if the period will expand back closer to its recent (7 year) average of about 60 weeks. It is almost a 100% certainty that the next 80 week low will be higher than the most recent 80 week low in February 2016 since there has never been a straddled 4 year low in the history of the market according to Hurst’s filter.

William


#15

Hi William,
I’m glad to see you here. This 40 week cycle has already expanded in time IMO. The Brexit low was the first hint, and now we have the US Election influencing the 40 week cycle period. I watch the $NYSI summation very closely and still there is no confirmation of the 40 week cycle low. Some other markets (eg. $TSX) and stocks show evidence, but not much to hang you hat on for US indices. Very difficult for me to get committed in front of election day.
cheers,
john


#16

For spx analysis where are you guys starting the analysis?
Anyone has a reasonable starting point for RUT?


#17

Hi Jules,

I run two analyses when I want to include longer cycle periods in the analysis. I start the SPX at 1994 in one case, and a second run from 1980. Start with these dates and run the ICM setting in Sentient to see what you get. You will get confusing results with Hurst’s nominal model. You should then consider the cycle periods produced by the ICM analysis, that is, input them as a nominal model and rerun ST. BTW, I don’t look at the RUT.

So why these start dates? It helps ST identify the ~7-7.5 yr cycle period that gives lows in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2002, 2009 and the most recent being 2016. The 45 month cycles (~2:1 harmonic) that go with that view are 1994, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2016. I listed the cycle periods I use as a nominal model further up this thread. There will be many that don’t use this interpretation and prefer Hurst nominal model. However William Randall’s bandpass filter work on the SPX gives the definitive view of these cycles and respective lows. This analysis is what I used to project the timing of the Jan/Feb. 2016 lows. Hurst’s nominal model would not have given you that projected low (a low perhaps, but not as a 7-7.5 yr cycle low).

If William has the time, it would be great to see an update of his 45 month (=Hurst 4.5 yr) cycle bandpass filter analysis. Once you study it, everything I suggest here will make more sense.

cheers,
john


#18

Hi John,

I’ve come up with something similar using a look-back to around 1992 (nominal model of 752 weeks, 376 weeks, 188 weeks, and 63 weeks). This approach also called the trough in February a seven year low (seven year troughs are placed at 7/1994, 9/2001, 11/2008, and 2/2016).

2 questions;

  1. Is the period from 1992 to current enough data to get a valid nominal model? (this approach matches the rhythm of the price action extremely well but the magnitude of the downward price movement has not been as severe as I would expect). There have been times in the distant past where Hurst’s original nominal model did not match up with the large magnitude lows but was still used.
  2. Placing the above lows where I did creates a question about the 10/2002 low, which only shows up as a 18 month low. It also looks like this one is still coming sometime early next year which greatly tempers my bullish enthusiasm.

Thanks.

Curt


#19

Hi Curt,

I’ll have to get back to you on current phasing and a chart update. But I will say market internals ($NYSI) still pointing down and we are approaching a 40 week count trough to trough. This still looks like a US election event as suggested several days ago. TWT.

cheers,
john


#20

My personal opinion would be that if we can stay above 4628 on the NASDAQ then we may move to a new high, followed by a stronger move down. Straddled 40-week trough.