Sugar (SB) (EOD)


#1

For all those with a sweet tooth. Had a look at sugar futures (SB) last week and identified a possible 18 month nominal low imminent. Uploading the chart here for the record and for future reference…


#2

Hi Dave,

It’s always nice to find an out-of-the-way instrument that’s not highly correlated with everything else (I think this is the case but haven’t checked yet). The fact that it might have some nice upside is a real plus. Have you ever traded it? Liquidity would be my question.

Curt


#3

Price is coming out of the 1.25 wk low and is above the 2.5 / 5 wk FLD. Since the 1.25 wk low is the mid channel pause for the 5 week everything seems to be on track. IF price can break the 10 wk VTL, make a higher 1.25 wk high, then a higher 2.5 low I’d be interested.

The inputs for the filters are taken from your phasing.

Thanks for posting,

Bryan


#4

Hi Curt, I have looked briefly into instruments that have a correlation with sugar. Agriculture and food based companies here in the UK. Also some ETFs that track the price.

Dave


#5

Cross of 80 day FLD gives target of 15.59, right at 20 week resistance.


#6

Sugar is near a 2.5/5 week low. Price is barely above the recent nested lows which need to hold.


#7

Yes I have been keeping an eye. The current phasing I have indicates sugar is running slightly longer duration cycles than Hurst’s nominal model. That would imply a 40 day nominal low here. If the low end June does not hold (and I am prepared to give it some leeway - I am not a EW absolutist!) then the logical conclusion would be that the 18 month occured in December 2016 and cycles are infact running shorter than the nominal!

I much, much prefer the former for many, many Hurstonian reasons…

I do like cheaper sugar mind you. Cheaper chocolate for one…

Dave


#8

Low risk, high reward possible long here in Sugar at an 80 day low. If the low back in June was indeed an 18 month this should launch. Posting for the record.