The Approaching SPX 20 week Top and Coming 80 week cycle Low


#1

There has been a lot written about the coming spx 20 week low. But there’s a new high in the spx today…2425+…
So, obviously, the “old” high of 2405, was not the “actual” high. So, where next for spx?
Maybe 2455 around june 6, 2017? And the lows? 20 week, 80 week?


#2

2700 on september and 2900 on november.


#3

40 w cycle high must have left translation and 02/27 week high needs to hold or my phasing is wrong.
Apparent trend is up however I do want to be long, so I am neutral. Next 80 week cycle low late July?

Noticed DJIA is already slightly (20 points) higher than 02/27 week high. Tomorrow’s active cession will confirm or not confirm the breakout.


#4

Gary,
Not sure other world markets are confirming US market strength. No doubt leadership is there now for the moment. Market breadth waffling here. Late in a typical 80 week cycle we’ve seen so jury’s out for me. I have seen really strong cycle moves that spend 95% of the time going up before a correction takes hold.


#5

John,
I am concern about nominal 40 week phasing. Simple laws of wave mechanics demand price top of 40 w cycle to be in its first half or 02/27 or the phasing is wrong. Some degree of tolerance say 1% may be allowed.


#6

Shorter cycles are hard to trade when longer cycles are driving price action. I expect a slight wobble very soon with more upside into late June or early July before the 80w air pocket in August. Your timing has to be perfect to short this runaway train so why mess with the shorter cycles.


#7

80 week cycle to exert its influence on US markets soon. I just watch the Canadian market and the February high was significant for my home maket. Oil/energy, materials, financials ( many have been crushed already). So you need to look under the hood …


#8

I know we disagree on long-term phasing but even longer cycles are potentially still pushing up (at least for a very short time). Agree about the poor overall health of the market. Divergences everywhere. That’s a switch. You more bearish than me. Ha. How we come out of this next 80w trough will be important for the future long-term direction of the market.


#9

If you were watching the Cdn market the last two months, you would be as cautious as I am. Reminds me of 2015 …


#10

Securities straying away from normal seasonality pattern ( pull back into summer) is invitation for trouble. One extreme example is 1987.


#11

Hi John.

I’ve been examining $TSX this morning with both ST and my filters. I can’t seem to get ST to phase the March/2009 and the January/2016 lows as 7 and 3.5 year lows. My analysis period begins a few weeks before the 2009 low. Using my filters it decomposes beautifully into fairly even, simple harmonic waves. Can you give me a suggestion for a custom nominal model to try in ST?

William


#12

Hi William,
Not home yet but soon. For the $TSX I think I have been using something similar to the $SPX which is 42 month and 7 year. I’ll have to back to you. I think I ran it from 1994 start date?
It is interesting how strong the US markets are again against most everything else in recent weeks.


#13

Believe me, I am extremely cautious too but until price confirms this view I am flat. Reminds me of Feb/March, 2000 (yeah, I’m old).

Technical indicators are garbage but here’s a very specific one that proves your point about the current state of the market. Don’t laugh, but it’s a crash indicator called the Hindenberg Omen (price up, both new highs and new lows at high levels, and poor breadth).

Two of these signals within a 36-day period are indicated by a red diamond on the chart and predict a serious drop within 40 days. We received the first signal 5/31 (yellow dot). It sounds way too overfit to work consistently but it has a very good track record, probably because the specific purpose of the indicator is to identify unhealthy market conditions. Your intuition is correct. The last confirmed signal was June, 2015.


#14

With what we have seen this week, i think this leaves only 2 options, one that calls for an inverted high at the end of the month and the second which fits much better with potential path of gold, is the one thatt you presented way back in november 2016 at the beginning of the former 20w low thread, namely a low this summer and a high at the end of november .
Fits also better with Elliot, namely a C wave of an expanded 4th before a fifth wave into november.
Finally this last scenario also fits perfectly up to the days for arrival of the low on August 9th, 47 td from supposed high now (ian Thym). First 19td low on June 15, second low 19TD July 14, third 19TD low August 9.
Same day bottom in most presented hurst phasing models.
Targets could be 2250 in June and 2200 in August.
Targets arrival in November are the ones on Backers chart where he showed his uneasiness with the Elliot/Hurst dilemma.
I think we have a good candidate for timng.


#15

Misu,
When you mention a “C wave of an expanded 4th wave” for Elliott, where do you pin the bottom of the A wave? March 27th?

Thank you


#16

Yes .that is the idea.


#17

We’re both right.

BTW, this indicator gets a bad rap sometimes because people are too lazy to calculate it properly.


#18

Hi Gary.

I was examining your weekly chart of the Dow. It is virtually identical to mine except my price waves (20,40) are just a little bit shorter than your uniform cycles. That pink moving average is a very close approximation of my low-pass band for my 20 week wave band-pass filter. My 80 week is somewhat different however. The approaching 20 week high (or the next one) has a high probability of being an intermediate top. I agree with your assertion that a lower 20 week high is a very high probability conformation that a top may be in.


#19

Apparently this market does not care how good my analysis looks. Total disrespect. :boom::cold_sweat: It feels good staying on the sideline. I am so frustrated ready to buy funny money (bitcoin) joke?


#20

And 2007…