Would you be willing to post a graph of one such machine-like precisely moving instrument so I can compare standards? Again, it may simply be that I am demanding too much.
However, at the risk of becoming persona non grata on this forum, I am lately becoming more cycle-skeptic.
I have been reading Mandelbrot’s ‘Mis-behaviour of Markets’ and it cites the example of Feller’s research into the patterns that emerge from random independent data. For example a coin flipped 10,000 times will produce distinctly cyclical patterns, even though we can’t expect that the prior coin tosses are affecting the future ones, as we do with price movements.
If you look at the graph on the 21st page of this document http://www.cbmc.it/~marchettil/LinguaggiBioinfo/Feller-chap3.pdf (you’ll have to rotate it or your screen or your head) you’ll see what appears to be a cycle beginning with a trough on the 2000th flip, a peak on the 4000th, another trough after the 6000th. But eventually the cycle breaks down. This is a pattern I see in financial markets, just enough of a sine wave to say something is there, but then, the cycle breaks down and we must recalibrate. I wonder if we are chasing phantasms.
Whenever a cycle fails to meet our expectations we can say it is caused by pseudo-trend, sigma-L, or instruments that are simply not cyclical, or it was a problem with our model, or a phasing error. There is always something, but have we considered that the cycles are simply ‘pressure eddys’ caused by the reflection principle, and are part of randomness? I’m not saying it is so, just saying it needs to be considered.
The predictions posted by the venerable members of this site, if you track them as I have, are very nearly 50% accurate which is to say their ‘point’ when it can be divined, turns out to be wrong as often as right. Which is better than you will find elsewhere, but not enough to completely abandon other methods of enquiry.
Note that I’m not saying that members aren’t having success in their trading, but should it be attributed to other tools of the gambling profession, such as good risk management, or is it really from forecasting skill?