Trading the DAX


#1

In the area for an 80-day peak?


#2

Hi DM, yes it is possible, but for me we have to be carefull, cause price cross over 20 W FLD, and this could be mean that a new 20 W cycle started, having a target as you see in the chart of 11700 about. So for the moment in my opinion I would wait daily close to see if it will be above 10820-10850,


#3

Hi Rodolfo,

It’s always good to get other people’s views.

I notice you pinned the latest 80-day trough in August. I have no experience of pinning troughs and was wondering why you picked that trough. Do you think the 30th September was too far.
The time from 24th June to 30th September was 98 days which seems to be a possible stretched 80-day.


#4

Hello, maybe the 40w through has occurred.


#5

Question for me is where is the 18 month peak? If there is an 18 month peak we need to see a move to an 18 month trough.


#6

Is there any possibility that the trough in September 2011 was of 4.5 year magnitude?

I think David has touched on this before that the lowest lows and highest highs might not necessarily be the highest magnitude peaks and troughs, or maybe he hasn’t.

If there is a possibility then we could be moving into a stretched 4.5 year trough.


#7

I have the low in Sept 2011 as a nominal 9 year low. I am treating the 2009 crash as a huge case of fundamental interaction as it phases pretty much perfectly discounting that. That makes the low earlier this year a nominal 54 month (4.5 year) low. It also bounced off the 54 month FLD which increases my confidence that is the correct phasing.


#8

Hi David, your analysis make sense, but in my opinion 2009 crash is too big to be only a fundamental iteraction, the point is which magnitude is the low made last February: 7y (shorter nominal 9year) or 18month (the third 18m cycle of the 54month).


#9

Hi Sergio I get your point, my opinion is that it is a 54 month low. It makes little difference to actual trading I hasten to add as is it is most probably a low of at least 18 month magnitude. I am open to the possibility of it being the final 18 month low of a 54 month because of the position of the 54 month FLD peak mid 2017. If that is the case I would expect support at the nominal 9 year FLD (red).

Really it is an academic point but its fun to make these long term projections!


#10

Elliott view


Maybe 5 Days Cycle Trough


#11

Hi Rodolfo,

I still think that the 5-day projection on the MT4 plugin will be hit at 10840, Probably get support from the 5-day FLD.

I’m using a modified version of Elliott wave and I am expecting a move down to below the February low.


#12

I agree, that’s my view too.


#13

DmcSoft, that 5 day FLD target is complete if a 5 day peak has formed. It has missed the target, although not by much. By the looks of the chart it is coming into a 5 day trough too. According to the chart a peak of 20 day magnitude has also formed, which means price must come down to a 20 day trough.

It may well get back to 840, but it won’t be the projection from that 5 day FLD which is effectively ‘complete’. Certainly though you are right about support at the 5 day FLD. I expect it to break down past it in the coming days.


#14

It does seem likely that FLD target has been reached (or not quite reached to be more accurate), particularly if that 20-day peak is in place as the analysis suggests. I often see targets not reached, then price comes back to the FLD, finds support and bounces back up to fulfill the target … but that will only happen if that 20-day peak is not in place.
And so it all boils down to whether that is a correct phasing of the 20-day cycle peak.

I would also look at the FLD cross itself … that is a fairly complex cross, by which I mean that price crosses back and forth several times. The indicator calculates the projection on the basis of those multiple crosses, but a one hour shift in wavelength would likely change the target.

It would be interesting to compare with the 5-day FLD target on the H4 chart and the M30 chart. Because of the different resolution of data you will get slightly different targets.


#15

Hi David_F,

I totally agree with what your saying.


#16

Really here we are touching on the ‘art’ of trading with Hurst Cycles. Experience is needed to quickly assess all the variables and come to a probability! Nothing is ever certain, alas :smiley:


#17

David, are you in US? I have some basic questions about hurst analysis…my email is jules_bassale@yahoo.com


#18

Hi Jules, I am in the UK, Cambridge.

If you come onto the trading room I host most days you can fire questions at me there if you like…


#19

Last chance to move up ?


#20

Hi Rodolfo

From a Hurst point of view the 20-day cycle trough could be over the weekend, so whether we see a lower price today remains to be seen. We may well have seen the low.

From a personal opinion point of view I think we need a new low just below 10576 to compete this move, before a final move up.