I expect a right translated trough in Treasury yields similar to what was seen in 1900 sometime in 2024. William, it looks like your filter might have started rolling over to higher yields but I’m not really worried about that at this point, mainly because of the smoothing implicit in your approach. Your filter did the same thing in 1900 and rates continued lower for a good number of years. In addition, I’m guessing your filter will repaint a fair amount because of the very long lookback needed on this data set.
I will post my peak-only ST analysis on Treasury yields from 1857 when I have time.