I have been a USD bull since the 2011 top in gold/silver. However, time seems to be running out for the DXY. The dollar index is up 8.5 years now from the 2008 low. Granted this is the longest dollar rally versus the 80s (~6.5 yrs) and 90s (~8yrs). There are some very large cycles at play here so I will not be betting against them. Namely the 8 and 16 year cycles.
The question is whether this pattern which started from early 2015 is a consolidation (pause zone - Hurst), or a topping pattern (eg. triple top). I don’t have any evidence as to which way it goes other than cycles say time is running out. The other thing I would suggest is that it would be odd to have a pause zone form here, precisely where an 8 and 16 year cycle high should arrive for the USD. I could go on from a cycles point of view, but I think I have expressed my views fairly clearly earlier in this thread.
From a purely technical point of view, the DXY index tested the 100 level in early 2015 on high volume. This is the third test now on lower volume with weakening internals. The month is not over so TWT.
PS The cycle bubbles drawn are 7.66 years each top to top, and the next cycle up is 15.3 years. We are in the time band for the 16 year cycle to turn (ie. top).