USD Index Long Term Cycles


#1

Posted this analysis earlier in the year.

http://hurstcycles.com/usd-index-long-term-cycles-2/

Shared these charts privately in August.

So a pullback in gold/silver is no surprise as we finish 2016, and based on this look, a bearish period to come for the $USD. More short term analysis to follow.

cheers,
john


#2

Peak phasing on the long term chart looks pretty compelling to my Hurstonian eye, cheers.


split this topic #3

16 posts were split to a new topic: USD Long Term Analysis - pinned topic


#4

Yer thats the phasing I have with Hurst’s original nominal model. I believe John is using a shorter model which, as I mentioned, seems compelling. There is certainly a large cycle peak in this area (monthly timescale!).


#5

This is what i saw when i flip over the dxy. I suspect dxy will reach 120.


#6

The dxy has huge impact on bitcoin. Bitcoin is only the beginning stage.


#7

Gold i still believe it will continue move down until 750. From left it is 3. Moving right it is 5 to form a complete cycle. I see a truncated e in term of fld. Current is complete of g fld towards h fld.


#8

goh, That’s always possible. But in what timeframe? You may be right in the very long term. However, if we’ve seen the major cycle lows that have been discussed at the recent Hurst webinar, those price targets are a long way off.


#9

LOL Goh, love this chart! Clearly you need 10 screens to accomodate that bull market :smiley:


#10

Hi. Joe… i use dual analysis nominal model. It shows may 2018 is the bottom. It is matching to the amplitude counting that i have posted. Thus i quite agree on original counting of nominal model.


#12

If anyone here has some good long term data on the USD Index, please let me know as I would like to have a copy. An excel CSV file would be preferred or anything you are using with Sentient would be great. I currently use data back to 1986 but I am missing the peak in 1985. Ideally back to the early 1970s would be a help.
cheers,
john


#13

John, try this:

http://stooq.com/q/d/?s=dx.f

Historical data back to 1967.

Hope that helps.

Dave


#14

Thank you David. Worked like a charm. Will get back to you with more thoughts on the USD Index.
cheers,
john


#15

S&P500 I suspected already complete a full cycle from the bottom. As you can see bottom from the chart is 3. Top also now is 3. Elliot wave mentioned about 335 but I do not see it as 335. I see it as 33533.However I did not fully adopted to the concept of elliot wave but I do use the basic wave movement concept at 3 and 5.


#16

Gold I have shorted it yesterday. I still believe it is on the way down.


#17

Dave,

What is the source of that data prior to 1986? It consists of only closing values. My euro data prior to 1999 consists of the German mark data stitched to the euro data. I suspect that something similar has been done to the stooq data.

William


#19

Hi William,

Probably, not sure. Will see what John makes of it.

Dave


#20

Excellent thank you, more of these charts please!

Dave


#29

Exemplary peak phasing there John.


#30

I do not think gold can break the line. The pattern in the box shows the weakness in bull trend. It already shows a signal moving down. Currently retrace back before moving downward.