VXUS - Vanguard Intl Fund (ex-US equity)


#1

Hello

Today I invite you to look at VXUS Vanguard International Fund of ex-US equity.

One limitation is that data is from 2011, which means any price projections must account for that.

I have three models:

1- DEFAULT unpinned : Hurst nominal model lengths
2- MY VXUS unpinned : MY VXUS cycle lengths as I see best fit
3- MY VXUS 18m trough pinned to JUL2017 : MY VXUS model with one 18m trough pinned

Here are the graphs:



Comments:

1- DEFAULT model looks ok, the only less likeable feature is the 18m trough @ FEB2018. Seems stretched. This model thinks we are at a 40wk trough. The CML projects a move up from the current 40wk trough to a 20wk peak expected in end of FEB2019.

2- This MY VXUS model has different cycle lengths from the the DEFAULT model, and has no pinning done to it. The model thinks we are also at a 40wk trough, but the peak phasing here is different. The CML projects a move up from the current 40wk trough to an 18m peak expected in APR2019.

3- This third model has an 18m trough pinned to JUL2017 instead of FEB2018. Phasing does look a little better. In this situation Sentient places a 40wk trough in FEB2018 where the 18m trough was before. This model thinks we are at, or approaching, an 18m trough. CML projects a rise from the current 18m trough
to the APR2019 18m peak.

Therefore, Sentient thinks we are at a 40wk or an 18m trough for VXUS, with a rise expected to either end FEB2019 (to a 20wk peak) or APR2019 (to an 18m peak).
(consideration must be made as data is only from 2011)

In addition, the weekly VXUS chart is producing a DeMark 13TD BUY setup this week (!) and the daily has made a 13TD BUY setup and is about to complete a new 9TD BUY.

In summary, conditions look bullish for the next few months. Following that, all models expect a move down to the next 18m trough (OCT2019).

Comments welcome.


#2

Hi I will be a buyer of a pullback this week and look for 3%, 5% and 8% targets. Using January calls


#3

Hello Derek

VXUS options went well ?


#4

Hello

An update on VXUS:

1- Sentient has placed the 18 month trough diamond in 26DEC2018 (as expected)
2- VXUS has risen to 49USD
3- VXUS is now at a possible 80 day peak, on its way to a possible 18 month peak in early APR2019.

Question is: as during FEB2019, a retracement is expected, should we:

1- Hold on to the long position ?
2- Sell all and try to buy in early March ?
3- Buy March long put options ?
4- Other ?

Comments welcome.