Hello
Today I invite you to look at VXUS Vanguard International Fund of ex-US equity.
One limitation is that data is from 2011, which means any price projections must account for that.
I have three models:
1- DEFAULT unpinned : Hurst nominal model lengths
2- MY VXUS unpinned : MY VXUS cycle lengths as I see best fit
3- MY VXUS 18m trough pinned to JUL2017 : MY VXUS model with one 18m trough pinned
Here are the graphs:
Comments:
1- DEFAULT model looks ok, the only less likeable feature is the 18m trough @ FEB2018. Seems stretched. This model thinks we are at a 40wk trough. The CML projects a move up from the current 40wk trough to a 20wk peak expected in end of FEB2019.
2- This MY VXUS model has different cycle lengths from the the DEFAULT model, and has no pinning done to it. The model thinks we are also at a 40wk trough, but the peak phasing here is different. The CML projects a move up from the current 40wk trough to an 18m peak expected in APR2019.
3- This third model has an 18m trough pinned to JUL2017 instead of FEB2018. Phasing does look a little better. In this situation Sentient places a 40wk trough in FEB2018 where the 18m trough was before. This model thinks we are at, or approaching, an 18m trough. CML projects a rise from the current 18m trough
to the APR2019 18m peak.
Therefore, Sentient thinks we are at a 40wk or an 18m trough for VXUS, with a rise expected to either end FEB2019 (to a 20wk peak) or APR2019 (to an 18m peak).
(consideration must be made as data is only from 2011)
In addition, the weekly VXUS chart is producing a DeMark 13TD BUY setup this week (!) and the daily has made a 13TD BUY setup and is about to complete a new 9TD BUY.
In summary, conditions look bullish for the next few months. Following that, all models expect a move down to the next 18m trough (OCT2019).
Comments welcome.
