Great ST webinar by David on Monday.
A question came up about measuring the 9 year cycle from the 2000 peak to the 2009 trough and then to the upcoming 2018 peak. The Hurst methodology measures cycles trough to trough or peak to peak not peak to trough. The obvious question is what about the 2000 to 2018 peak to peak 18 year cycle measurement? I noticed the longest cycle in David’s analysis was 9 years. I will post a ST analysis soon on the impact of including the 18 year cycle using the same phasing shown in the webinar. I am curious how this high amplitude cycle would impact the timing of the upcoming peak and composite line. My feeling is it would push the peak forward a bit and make the downturn more severe.
I do not believe that government market manipulation (buying) drives markets to extremes. However, I do believe that ultra-easy monetary policy can drive investor sentiment to extremes. My term for Hurst’s pseudo-trend is bubble. I wouldn’t believe it myself if we haven’t seen it twice before in the last 30 years.