You better learn HURST because food is about to get expensive


#1

You see how extraordinarily similar the prices of this index of grains are to the same position in the preceding 18 year wave?

Regards,
Ahmed


#2

The trouble with this rudimentary approach Ahmed, as you may be aware, is that you are assuming the phase of Sigma-L is the same for the coming cycle. Which it won’t be. A better approach would be to calculate sigma-l to some extent and apply this to the previous 18 year wave.


#3

How will you define slope of the line you will add to the projection line? since sigma ell will mostly be added as a line. It does make sense to account for it and larger cycles as well we are limited by DATA. Please view correlation of EURUSD 40 week cycle taking 4 larger cycles into context. – The correlation is 81%. I rarely get correlations below 70% due to similarity in trend. The only difference is the variation of the minor cycles and sometimes the ultimate high like that which occurred on The DJIA this 18 year cycle. Allow me to present – please read the paper I sent you in order to understand. Simplicity is what defines a good approach in my humble opinion.

Thanks as always for your valuable input
Ahmed


#4

Here is what I mean regarding Dow Jones.

Considering that this is an SCC (similar cyclical circumstance) as 2000-2003 we could have anticipated that Europe will perform worse than the US (based on history) and we could have anticipated that technology would get hit the hardest. Infact we could have anticipated this tech bubble post 2016 low since its analogy would be the 1998 low which was the floor off of which the tech bubble starting bubbling in heat!

Ahmed


#5

The slight additional peak translation occurred on the DAX as well but to a much lesser extend. This suggests that the cycle underlying current 18 year wave is stronger than that which led to the peak in the year 2000. Here is the illustration on DAX

Refined Projection

Regards,
Farghaly


#6

You can always detrend the data for higher similarity. Provided you have the correct scale, the similarity in trend will be reflected on the detrended data to some extent and will yield MUCH higher correlation than simply taking the preceding cycle without look at the position within the larger cycles.

Regards,
Fringy