@David_F raised a very interesting subject in his post about the ASX 200
I think commonality is very important, which is why I track the South African market. Here is my current take on what is happening there (the ALSI 40):
It is very similar to the analysis David has for the ASX … but a big difference is that it has the 40-week cycle running short at 36 weeks, and that is why we get that 40-week circle-and-whiskers in October. So is it possible that the 40-week trough has come in? Even though the shorter cycles then don’t really make sense …
I also watch an analysis that uses a shorter nominal model (thanks @joestreich). This might make sense for the SA market because of the reliance on Gold and Gold mining … here is the analysis:
This is strikingly similar to John’s analysis of the SPX here.
The great thing about watching other markets is it can give you early warning about when bigger cycles are turning. I hope you find this helpful.