I’ve had fairly good success with a crude oil model that features these cycles as shown in the Cyclic Model Summary. This model is not much different than something Ray Tomes published years ago. I’ve been working with these shorter cycles since the 2009 lows.
The thing is crude oil is range bound and fairly flat during this current 22 week cycle. The peaks and troughs have been coming in fairly close together, or so it seems. I have typically found that the troughs analysis is more reliable, but since oil started the big bear market in 2014, most of the cycles expanded in time. So right now I am looking for an important peak (which would be a 21 month high) and a 45 week trough. Crude rallied for 43 weeks so far off its February low which is expected for a very large cycle low (I find markets rally for almost an entire cycle period eg. 45 week cycle in a bull move) before heading into the same cycle low. So will we get a peak here in December and a sudden drop into January/February? Seasonally this would be typical. If crude slides into a 45 week cycle low, it is a buy. If it continues to rally from recent lows, it will be a tough trade to stay long. There have been some nice trading swings in crude this year, long and short.
I’ve shown the cycle waves for the 45 week cycle and the half cycle to that. These have been very consistent cycles to follow. If crude settles back here into January, one would expect the $SPX to pause at the very least. Would love to hear your thoughts.