Feel free to post. Any comment is welcome.
Hi Goh, thank you for posting this. I have been meaning to look at Bitcoin for some time. I’m going to do some analyses this weekend and see what it looks like. Probably need to turn on the logarithmic scaling! (use the button in the toolbar with the horizontal lines)
One thing that bothers me is that it resembles a metal or commodity market with sharp peaks and rounded troughs.
Thanks. I have no idea how to analyze it. Here is the data. I am using simplefx mt4 data.
BTCUSD1440.csv (111.1 KB)
Not enough data for any kind of long term analyses. Looking at Google trend interest has picked. Also there is relatively stable 26 week cycle and possibly 52 week Bitcoin is highly speculative vehicle and will be inevitably destroyed by USD.
I also feel uneasy at this peak. may be time to close. (2500 - 600)/600 = 3.16. Invest 20000 usd. Return 60000 usd profit.
Invest dash even better. Last feb 2017 was around 19 usd. Now is 200 usd. (200−19)/19=9.52. Invest 20000 usd. Return 180000 usd profit.
Anyway i still looking for other cryptocurrency opportunity.
Bitcoin, dash and ethereum are the potential cryptocurrencies. Recently China has a new cryptocurrency starting at a 5 usd price. It has an advertisement in new york time square. It has 200,000 members. Dash only has 15,000 members at 15 usd.
My personal opinion is that bitcoin is behaving just like any other financial instrument, which is they always end in a bubble. Once price goes vertical beware.
If there are no security issues in the next 4-5 years and it can hold onto to 20+% of it’s value against USD then there could be a good buying opportunity.
Good trade by the way.
Ethereum FLASH CRASH!
If we look on gold it has 3 cycles of 54 month peaks. Same as Bitcoin is still not yet the peak. Still long way to go. Although it gets corrected to 1500 usd , the profit factor is still not so good. It would be nice to invest on small cap cryptocurrency.
China Bitcoin exchanges get regulated. Bitcoin mining difficulty is getting higher. Precious currency.
Target 4000 or 5000 usd ? Cannot run away from its dominant. I am extremely loaded if I can stick to this 600 usd. Cannot use the usd strength to justify its amplitude.
Hey guys … gonna be sharing the* love for BTC cycles. Same but kinda^ … a different perspective on BTCUSD. I’m so grateful this community exists.
Thanks Srid. Can you give a legend on the chart (or here) so we know your thinking regarding the notation and phasing? I am just starting to build a picture of BTCUSD myself in prorealtime. Below is my current phasing. 40 day nominal peak imminent.
I agree, you’re right @David_F! I use Tradingview only for BTC and I do not have any tools here to make the analysis easier. Just sat down and started rendering manually a cyclical view of how BTCUSD breathes. I’m sure if we put our minds to it all of us we can render its beauty! Planning on going trough the Poloniex API and see if I can have the live data in my hands.
@goh Yeah … apparently it has quite the unsustainable swing so it will require a healthy retracement soon. But I don’t really see any compression from the upside as the big cycles breathe … So green light all the way upwards until we will see a less powerful higher high? What concerns me is that this Pair really skips any structure or breakout confirmations on Dreams and Hype … imagine what it will do on Panic*!
bitcoin.bitstamp.csv (97.9 KB)
Daily bitcoin data from the bitstamp exchange. It maybe of use to someone.