Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin

@b3cker while I do not doubt the Elliott sequence, as long as we have time translations favoring the upside it can be wave 5 of any up wave. I like paper money and I like cryptos but apparently the world has already “spoken” and while Bitcoin might one day be surpassed this chart is and will be still a 1vs1, Bitcoin vs Paper $. I was referring to a “new Era” as a new financial structure of the world. Is it Bitcoin? NO but it was the best timing and best test ever. So yeah, supersaturated ICO’s and coins … it’s all just a phase - sure. Then comes the doubt and panic or whatever problem, as always everywhere Cycles. But it’s most definitely not a Tulip! You could say its the opposite - it should’ve been dust and yet it goes for the moon :relieved:

Cryptos without a doubt have merit but the one that is going to survive has not been created yet. Only an opinion. Would I build my portfolio out of penny stocks? No, but it would be fun gambling few thousand here or there.


So, everyone who wants to enter the crypto-currency market, first of all, what needs to be understood is that the market has already been formed, and now a division begins, that is, trade, and this is the only way to earn real money now. With the same 3-4 thousand dollars of the value of the crypto-farm, which will pay off at best not earlier than half a year is better spent on the game on the stock exchange, or given to normal traders. And you will definitely increase your investments for half a year three times at least. And the risks of investing in a farm and a stock exchange are the same, if the market bursts, then there will be no sense in the farm, it’s easy.

I am going to reassert my stance that cyclical analysis does not contribute much to the understanding of future price direction of a uni-directional instrument like BTC. The troughs are too shallow; the only sensible way to trade it is to hold.

Although I should also mention that SEGWIT is due to occur around Nov. 16 and my broker “helpfully” suspended all trading in BTC until after that date (starting now). I don’t think they actually have my financial well-being at heart, but see it as a chance to give their liquidity providers a rest after losing so much money on an instrument that doesn’t sell off. Will the hard fork cause a selloff? I highly doubt it. BTC suckers seem to be inured to all bad news and come back for more which makes me the bigger sucker, not having dived in. Especially as it now seems no one trading on my brokerage (FXChoice for those who wish to stay far away) can place any short trades. That’s what I call a ‘bull trap’!

Notice that ST helpfully provides FLD price targets but these fall woefully short of the actual trend and don’t even hint at any future reversal. What use are they? On higher TF charts it’s even worse, and on lower TF charts, the only targets that reach their objective are the ones to the upside. So, Hurst is mighty but not almighty in these (rare?) circumstances.


@scarletpip Very beautiful analysis there. Shallow or not - This Asset is definitely uni-directional but thats because our paper money is also unidirectional compared to this exotic Asset. I find this and the 8digits the only logical explanation for such a powerful upward SigmaL. Thing is - like with anything in this universe to much (+) will create demand for (-). My speculation is that this SEGWIT will take care of that. If not - then there will be (++) and we will get a crash-like event eventually (- -). Future contracts and rumors of ETF in the 2018 summer - all creates more options and selling.

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I have been looking at this instrument for a while, it is actually quite cyclical as far as I am concerned. I have a similar phasing to you and certainly the trough based phasing is as good as any other I have in my portfolio of various currencies, equities and commodities. The peak phasing is more tricky (as in a lot of instruments). Do not assume that the price peak is the cycle peak…



In order for cyclical analysis to be more useful for BTC, one must first convert the data to log scale (see my chart posted above) before any numerical analysis is performed. Unfortunately I do not have access to BTC data at the moment (cvs file anyone?) but my prior analysis did show a promising cyclical nature.

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bitcoin.bitstamp.csv (102.7 KB)

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How do you get the marketdata? Do you have a special account? Would be nice to have a source so we do not ping you everytime for a file. @dmcsoft

Transaction data is gathered automatically from the bitstamp API every few hours.

Any opinions on how high this can go before the bubble bursts?

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I will see if I can coax a different analysis from a log chart. Would all cycle analysis benefit from working logarithmically instead of with linear charts?

@dmcsoft I believe it will have another push up in the next weeks but not sure if it will be higher than our previous high artifact. SEGWIT or maybe SEG-some-other-time, this exotic asset still needs a healthy retracement for new smart money to come in.

It depends. Using log data will provide much more accurate VTL’s. The visual scaling is more useful over long runs of data. For any type of spectral analysis it is a must in my opinion when there is a large discrepancy in the amplitude from the beginning of the data to the end. On shorter runs of data the difference is negligible.

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Thanks dmcsoft! I’ll post an analysis shortly.

I know that I should expect peaks to be rounder than troughs (at least with equities) but is there another general principle to apply when distinguishing between peak vs. trough phasing?

My very preliminary analysis suggests that BTC has the most consistent spectral structure of any financial instrument I have analyzed, even more so than gold! This seems to apply all the way down to the shortest waves using daily data. I wouldn’t be surprised if it extended down to the intraday level. The chart below is decent look at the 20 week wave.

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I think this is the trough timing What do you think ? Do you agree ? Bitcoin is in the beginning stage only.

2007 to 2027 = 20 years.

18 years = 20 years
9 years = 10 years
4.5 years = 5 years
and so on.

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the one that is going to survive has not been created yet.

This weekend there was some drama regarding the domain and a ‘fork’ of BTC known as Bitcoin cash (BCH). BCH, doubled in value, while BTC fell. I think your words might end up being prophetic.

@dmcsoft @David_F @wrandall @scarletpip
For daily updated marked data.

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Dash reaches 1000 usd ?

DASHUSD1440.csv (66.0 KB)

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