This is how I have it phased currently
David, your phasing looks good to me. February test at higher level?
I was wrong it is going lower into end of January , and my only excuse is that I do not touch this cr… ,and dataset it too small
Also I did not synced daily and weekly models, as I should have.
Small band travelling inside big band. Small band is using harmonic 64. It starts with 8, 16, 32, 64 and so on. BTC indeed has a consistent timing. Hopefully it can break the block.
I wouldn’t expect a change in the overall trend until something ‘big’ changes in the macroeconomics of BTC. Something like a nation going bankrupt and a sudden influx of wealth being moved into it. Like back in the the good old days. I expect a reversal will coincide with diminished interest - when it becomes so uninteresting that volumes return to pre-2017 levels.
I won’t be interested in BTC until it can extricate itself from this weekly range and possibly break through a 20 week smoothed moving average.
I’m sure David_F’s phasing is peerless but we have seen before how strongly-trending instruments can defy expectations based on cycles.
My early research into the (lack of) effectiveness of FLDs for making price targets, the variance or more accurately, lack of recurrence in cycles, the large p-values in the few hypothesis tests I’ve been able to do and the overall random performance of forecasts made by Hurstonians in this forum and elsewhere are beginning to erode my confidence in Mr. Hurst’s theories. It is not a simple thing to extricate randomness and data mining from data analysis which perhaps explains the devotion that Hurst retains to this day. It’s still too early to form a conclusion but when I have time I will share my findings. I’m sure that’s the least I can do for being such a perennial Negative Nancy.
Not sure its peerless mate, just one phasing of many I have for several different instruments. I’ve been wrong before and will be again but Hurst’s work is by far my favourite method. Its got a high probability of success if coupled with human powers of discretion.
FLD targets are something I am very careful with after several years of analysing many hundreds. It is of upmost importance to recognise the actual crossing point in conjunction with deep knowledge of the subtleties of your phasing analysis. Many times price will track along the FLD then cross and too much enphasis has been placed on taking the target from the point that price first penetrates the FLD - when it is infact the start of a tracking move. I could do a whole video on it!
I totally agree on your macro view by the way in btc. A huge rise in crypto requires a fubdamental shift from fiat. The volume in crypto presently is puny. Thus will tie in with a very large cycle low, as ever!
Finally, this forum is pretty poor for decent Hurst analysis alas. There is a lot of rubbish. I don’t post much here anymore.
If using 15-01-2015 as the first trough then the full cycle is not yet complete . If cannot break the block then should drop to breakout price at 1100.
I do appreciate the analysis that is shared here though, especially when it is accompanied by a clear thesis with objective time and/or price targets. Without these an analysis is ‘indefinite’ or meaningless, which is worse than being wrong, IMO.
David, I have appreciated your analysis in the past, and hope to see more of it…is there somewhere else you do post your analysis? Thanks!
Yes, absolutely tons of it on twitter, where I can easily post charts and check back for their efficacy. @tradinghurst is the handle
I thought there might be more chatter with BTC’s recent perk up. It’s now trading above its 50 week MA. Goh did you shore up your position or do you see it declining into June as per your most recent chart? Anyone else interested in shorting this sprouting enthusiasm?
I am sorry…I take all my recent posts down… Price does not act like what Hurst does… need more study…
Bitcoin has a clean cyclical structure dating back to the very beginning. Some of the longer waves, like the one shown, have a tendency to phase to the highs. The shorter waves are just as easily extracted using a filter approach.
Here is an updated look at the above chart. One of the shorter waves tracked those visually evident peaks in 2021 perfectly.
Addendum: My analytical approach is very different from the approach used by David with Sentient Trader as evidenced by his latest bitcoin video. As David mentions in the video one should always apply their own analysis confirmation techniques.
Here is my update on Bitcoin since it has generated a lot of attention lately. It also provides a contrast to the latest Bitcoin video by David Hickson.
The price action formed a lower high, as implied in the prior post, subsequently broke the up trending VTL, and dropped to the bottom of the extrapolated envelope shown in the chart below. The price wave shown at the bottom of the chart shows remarkable consistency dating back to when Bitcoin was trading for less than a dollar. It is very high risk to cherry-pick these “edge-band” trades. However, Bitcoin decomposes very nicely into its shorter waves which can be used for fine tuning one’s entry and exit points. Based on the relative positions of the recent highs and lows of the shown wave, the “trend” is down.