Clearly there are some skilled EW practitioners present on this forum. In the interests of practicality I have started this EW thread for those that wish to post their ‘wave counts’ for the S&P 500/SPX. Filed under ‘other approaches’ for now. Good luck!
Buy the dip or count waves?
God knows, I’m waiting for all the EW Gurus to post their counts. Come on guys!
Here’s my main count for the S&P. The most important Fibonacci target on the chart right now is at 2478, where black (intermediate degree) wave 3 would equal 1.618 times black wave 1. That would be the most common relationship between waves 3 and 1. Another very important factor right now is that the percentage of bulls among retail traders reached 89% on June 2. Retail traders are reliably wrong en masse at major turning points, so the S&P may not have quite enough giddyup to hit 2478 here at the mid-year, in my opinion. - Sid
Thank you Sid for being the first one to step forward with your wave count. This is the same count that I am following. One alternative I am wary of is that the pink wave 3 seems short for a wave 3, of 3, of 3. I know that the structure and the fib relationships “work” and are valid, but I do wonder if the March top might prove to be the the pink 3 instead of pink 5. We will only know that in the rear-view mirror.
I do not understand all your labeling and I would appreciate if you would help with that. What is T/0 and P&T please? Is CL the crude futures?
- T/O CL is troughs-only composite line suggested turn (from Sentient Trader software)
- P&T CL is peaks & troughs composite line suggested turn (also from Sentient)
The reasons I placed the blue (minor degree) 3 at the March 1 high are two-fold: 1) the extreme DSI reading (92) on that date, and 2) the fact that on March 1, the S&P came very close to reaching 1.618 times the length of blue wave 1. As a matter of fact, the ES contract slightly overshot the blue 3 = blue 1 * 1.618 target on March 1 because blue 2 started at a lower level (the overnight futures low the night of the US election).
Lastly, the degree of the projected Hurst cycle trough (at least 18-month) suggests that the dip into July/August will be more substantlal than a relatively small (pink/minute) degree correction.
Thank you Sid for your explanations. Your reasoning re the wave count makes total sense.
Same idea. Dates very slightly different. August 9th for end of retreat.
June 15 t (19 TD) to 22 ( Bradley ) for A wave.
July 3 to (or)15 for B wave
Six weeks ago today I posted my main SPX count on this thread. In that post, I said that the most important level on the chart was 2478, where black wave 3 would be equal to black wave 1 times 1.618. At the time, I wondered if the index had enough strength to reach that most common EW/Fib relationship between waves 3 and 1 of a 5-wave impulse. Amazingly, it looks like the S&P is going to grind its way to that level come hell or high water. The high today so far is 2468. 10 more points to go. At this rate, it could take a few more days. - Sid
Don’t know the latest updates posted, but on track.
In the S&P, the black wave 3 equals black wave 1 times 1.618 Fibonacci target (@ 2478.62) was hit this morning. The gap up at today’s open may be an exhaustion gap. Price rejection within a very few days is required to confirm. The intraday high for the day so far is 2481.24.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average already recently hit its identical Fib target (black 3 = black 1 * 1.618) @ 21459.3 on June 19, and is currently about 1% above that target. (These targets are often overshot by a little).
The VIX hit 9.04 just after the open today. The record close on the VIX is 9.34 on Dec 22, 1993.
A Sentient analysis of the continuous ES contract (daily) starting at the Oct 11 2007 high with the last 20-week cycle trough re-pinned to the April 13 low, and the last 20-week peak re-pinned to the March 1 high still suggests that a correction is imminent, down into an 18-month, and possibly 4.5-yr cycle trough due around early Sept. That would likely be the black wave 4. Wave 4’s typically retrace to the extreme of the the last wave 4 at one lesser degree. That would make the black 4 target 2322.25 in SPX.
That looks a reasonable phasing Sid, aside from the 18 month peak which should be shifted along one 40 week cycle and the obvious misplacement of the 54 month nominal low, which should be in Feb 2016. The bigger cycles above the 40 week cycle matter little of course when trading cycles below that.
As far as the EW goes…you are the master of that!
You may not agree with my phasing David, but I believe it to be as good as any. They all have problems. My example, which starts at the 2007 high forces Sentient to place a 4.5-yr cycle trough at the March 2009 low. I believe this is a perfectly acceptable technique. Once that trough is labeled, ST must place the next 4.5-yr trough at or very near the June 2013 low, which admittedly is problematic, because the dips were quite small all around that date. But guess what? During long and strong 3rd waves, this is almost ALWAYS a problem with Hurst. It has to place a relatively large cycle trough somewhere DURING the 3rd wave.
After June 2013 in my example, the Feb 2016 low would have only been an 18-month cycle trough, and the next 4.5-yr cycle trough stills lies just ahead of us, in Q3, probably September. As for the peaks, my example places the last two 4.5-yr peaks at the May 2011 high and the May 2015 high. Nothing wrong there. Those are the most prominent peaks since the 2009 low. I repinned the most recent 20-week peak to the March 1 high because it didn’t disturb the flow of the longer peak cycles much before and after the repin, and it made more sense in that location compared to the odd default placement.
Admittedly, the 2007 starting point creates some problems, especially recently with the vague default placements of the last 20-week peak and 20-week trough, and therefore the most recent 80-day trough, which I believe you and virtually everyone else in this forum has been grappling with lately. Still, I’ve examined the long, intermediate, and shorter term phasing using about every common sense starting point you can imagine, including 1928, 1966, 1998 and 2000, and have explored common sense repinning galore, and they ALL have issues.
So I used the 2007 starting point in this example (FYI: I typically prefer starting at the 1966 peak) because the 2007 start with the 20-week repins (mentioned above) does the best job of placing the coming troughs and peaks at locations that make sense with my Elliott Wave count and its associated Fibonacci price targets, which have been working quite well recently, thank you.
Below is ST analysis of continuous ES contract (including today’s price action) starting at the October 2007 high, with the following two repins: 1) 18-month peak re-pinned slightly to the Aug 23, 2016 high, and 2) the 20-week cycle trough re-pinned slightly to the April 13, 2017 low. The first chart is the big picture, and the second one is zoomed in. Notice that a re-pin of the 20-week peak to the March 1 high is not necessary to project the same general forward expectation as my last post.
Finally, here’s the same ST chart (zoomed in) as above, without the phasing semi-circles:
Oh I agree with most of it Sid - the phasing up to the 40 week level looks sound. Who trades longer cycles than that anyway? It does look nice on a chart though if you have the longer cycles all nice and logical.
Let me know when there is a perfectly clear picture on the longer cycles. (-:
Sid, thanks a lot for your analysis, I’m really amazed by it. Just one question: do you see the possibility of this being the (coming) top of major V? I’ve seen a couple of interesting counts on that. I know EW counts are to a certain degree subjective, but do you see the possibility of an alternate count where this is THE top of the bull market with no new highs in the coming months - years? Thx!!
Yes, the top that I believe is forming about now could be the end of 5 waves up from the 2009 low in some indices, and that is my alternate count on the S&P. That is more distinct possibility for the Russell 2000 than in the other major indices in my opinion. It is an unlikely scenario for the Nasdaq IMO. Another possibility is that the top forming about now for black (intermediate) wave 3 would be followed by a black wave 4 into the 3rd quarter, and then the black 5th wave (on some indices, probably not all) might truncate about year-end, unable to make a new high above current levels at that time, therefore completing the orthodox end of 5 waves up from the 2009 low at that time.
Also possible is that after 5-waves up from the 2009 low is complete, that will be the end of supercycle wave 5 going back hundreds of years (into Europe). My preference though is to count the 5-waves up from the 2009 low as a cycle degree wave 1 within a much larger and decades-long supercycle wave 5 to come.
However you slice it, the 5-wave impulse from the 2009 low will likely last approximately 8 to 9 years from beginning to end. Even if it is a cycle degree wave 1, with much higher stock market levels expected in future decades, the cycle degree wave 2 to follow should last at least 5 years, and would retrace cycle degree wave 1 by 50 to 61.8 percent if it is a “textbook” 2nd wave. A Sentient Trader analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial average starting in 1966 suggests that the next 18-year cycle trough is due in the year 2025-2026, so I agree very much with what Curt said in an earlier post on a different thread: By the time the coming bear market finishes, buy and hold will be considered dead by almost all retail investors…
Below is my main monthly count for the DJIA, showing the bearish potential over the next decade or so, if my main count is correct.
Hi Sid, thanks a lot. There aren’t a lot of analysis like yours out there (in an extremely positive sense ) and I love your mixed EW - Hurst approach.
Your main count on the DJIA is the most convincing for me, the only problem I have is that big boys have left the room months ago, outflows have been relentless. If they didn’t empty their whole bucket yet, a marginal new high to complete the liquidation would make sense.
Since the bear market will probably be nearly impossible to trade (in an active manner), I’m trying to figure out the best strategy to literally “sell and hold”…that’s why I asked about the possibility of this being the final top. We have some big liquidity levels below still untested (like the 2000 on the DIJA), those should give everyone the opportunity to evaluate between the the III and the V. Strong reaction there we go for the V and possible new highs. Improbable slice there and we’re already done possibly…
At this point I hope we’re topping the III, and I can load up for the final V top. If this is not the case and 2000 slices I’ll look for an entry trailing the nearest available rip
Surely interesting times ahead, thx a lot!
I’d love to see more EW discussion on the forum, I think it’s an invaluable addition to cycle analysis (I’m not an expert so I’m not posting too much on the subject, but I hope to keep the discussion going, so…).
My 2 cents on the current count. We could be - S&P wise - in a contracting triangle. a leg lower towards 2430 should end wave 4, major V to new ATHs should follow to top the market.
Not putting numbers on Wave V potential target, but I don’t expect much higher than the previous ATH, the clock is ticking…if I’m not mistaken the market usually tops / bottoms in October and March…so I’d place a small bet on October for the final top. GL everyone!