Hillary or Trump?!

it is an analysis probability game and it will be great if you share your opinions here.

it is not a political post “i don’t care about politics” but a financial one, i would like to hear from you what is your analysis for the different financial market is telling you about who would probably win US Election.

for me, i know many polls putting Hillary in the white office on 8th November election, but from my market analysis “as a beginner” and what is said that if Trumps wins this will make the stock markets and USD heading south, my analysis for DJIA, SPX5000, Nas100 and US index are heading down on the dates of the elections and say yes Trump is the winner or it could be the downside of the election day due to the uncertainty, i could be wrong or Sentient Trader may just decided to give his voice to Trump (:slight_smile: .

The historical data I have is from the past and in no way will predict the future, since WWII if the S&P500 is negative between July 31 and October 31 then the incumbent party is voted out. This worked all except for one time in US history when Dwight D Eisenhower was elected president. The above did not hold true
Will hit hold true this time? Or be the second time this indicator failed? We shall know shortly


Not the man from the Establishment and the medias !

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CUBS WIN!!! 108 years Hurst cycle strikes again.
“The United States presidential election of 1908 was the 31st quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 1908. Popular incumbent President Theodore Roosevelt, honoring a promise not to seek a third term, persuaded the Republican Party to nominate William Howard Taft, his close friend and Secretary of War, to become his successor. Having lost the 1904 election badly with a conservative candidate, the Democratic Party turned to two-time nominee William Jennings Bryan, who had been defeated in 1896 and 1900 by Republican William McKinley. Despite his two previous defeats, Bryan remained extremely popular among the more liberal and populist elements of the Democratic Party. Despite running a vigorous campaign against the nation’s business elite, Bryan suffered the worst loss of his three presidential campaigns.”

Rotten - Thrombus Electoral map

History is a capricious lady and when it repeats it is never exactly the same.

so sentient trader was right… as usual … if i have some high risk appetite and trust the analysis, so i would be now in Maldives have some fun time (:smile: