Hello Everyone, A real Newbie question as I have just started with Sentient Trader and am ploughing through the accompanying videos. I want to do a NZDUSD analysis and as David Hickson’s videos suggest I am trying to determine the most important recent trough. For my money it is 25062013 so I should start my analysis period 1/3 of the way between the that trough and the previous peak i.e. 09052013. Sound fair enough or is there a better start dat for analysis? Thanks very much…Trevor
Welcome aboard. Posting a picture is always helpful if you could.
Hahahaha. What a newbie! Thanks for the reply LB…Looking again I now have 26082014 as a possible start date.Any thoughts very welcome.
Hopefully you can see the charts.
Can see the charts. Cannot see a phasing analysis!
Here we go…apologies for the delay I have been to wet and windy Lithuania!
Please see attached NZDUSD analysis …I have a concern about the last 18 month trough. Even though the diamonds are filled in I think the 10 day cycles are too closely spaced and the 18 month trough could actually be to come. The 40 day VTL appears to be supporting price but the 80 day FLD suggests a low around October 7th? Thats my first stab at phasing analysis and very unsure about what I have seen!
This is actually pretty much what I have. COnsider the principle of commonality with EURUSD and GBPUSD etc when phasing. Avoid placing cycle lows at large spikes (40 week) as you have above. Instead measure carefully between lows to narrow down the most probable correct phasing.
Thanks for the comments guys- So 3 days later please see attached analysis. I think we had the 20W trough Aug 15 so that forecasts the next 20W low around Jan 2019. (Too far away to consider at moment). The 20D FLD peak is Oct 9 implying a trough in price. The 80D cycle is currently running at 104 days so that suggests oct 15th and the 40D is running long at 51 days implying a low today! I notice that price is through the low of the envelope. In this case as I give more weight to the 80D cycle I think we could see a low between Oct 9th (20D FLD) and Oct 15th (80d) Does that make Hurstian sense or am I a mad dog barking up the wrong tree?
Dear All, I wasnt happy with the Kiwi analysis so I tried again. I actually found that the peak phasing analysis works much better than the trough analysis (which would make sense as the market trades USDNZD as well as NZDUSD) In this case am I right to think that as long as the 40 day VTL price goes lower. Also the 40 day VTL is acting as resistance and the FLD bottom is at oct 29th. Thats around when the 40W peak is expected. is that a decent conclusion or much room for improvement? Thanks as ever for any comments.