This is what I am tracking in WTI and its correlated cousins (Brent, Heating Oil etc) at the moment. Looking at a big low (either 18 month or a 9 year nominal) late July. Shorter term an 80 day low end of May. Very nice!
Did this rally trigger an entry for you?
Yes, it did indeed. Classic Hurst.
Its worth considering the bigger picture here in oil as its a bit tricky. We are at the 18 month FLD support here with an 18 month nominal low due imminently. If the low back in 2016 was at least a 54 month nominal I would expect price to bounce off the FLD in a kind of ‘B’ category interaction, being this close to the 18 month low. So, a move above the 20 week FLD would confirm this as it has been acting as excellent resistance over the last few months. There is also commonality in gas (NG)… Failing that we are still in the final 80 day cycle of the 18 month cycle…lets watch closely.
Yes, I see what you mean. Is there any other FLD support below the current price and 18m FLD? Just as a comparison to NG, what does the composite line for crude look like? I just assumed we would continue to drop into the Aug/Sept trough, which may still happen but it’s not a sure thing. Thanks for the post, Dave.
9 year, 54 month, 40w, 20w and 80 day are all above price…How this current 80 day cycle behaves will give us clarity.
Next 18 month peak mid 2018…
Cross of the 80 day FLD in WTI gives a target of 49.33. I am inclined to think the last 80 day low was infact the 18 month cycle low with the support shown above at the 18 month FLD.
4 hr latest view. All the commonality instruments (Brent, Heating Oil) have made their 80 day low and not made a lower low so I am sticking with the phasing below. The 18 month low phasing looks good to me now. Also included a prorealtime phasing of heating oil to demonstrate the price low is not ALWAYS The cycle low. One can deduce the cycle low from the smaller degree waves. Check out the clockwork regularity of the 40 week nominal wave!