S&P Long Term Cycle Phasing
Composite line included, not the best picture for digestion.
This is the full EW count and Fibonacci projection levels for the SPX off the 2009 lows.
The problem is , I can not reconcile Hurst model with energy model. Energy model does not allow for a new high before some sizable pullback
I appreciate you posting this long term chart as I am new here and trying to get my bearings. I just want to point out that, from my knowledge of EW, your count as shown violates some core rules. The wave iv around May 2012 penetrates wave i, and that is not allowed in an impulsive structure. And the wave 3 in yellow that you show as topping this past August would be the shortest wave in the current wave targeting the green wave 3. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. I am having some challenges in finding the “right” count myself!
Felix. I will post the various alternative counts for this major 5th of primary 3 at another time. The short answer to your points though are: I am counting this final 5th as an ending diagonal hence each of the motive waves within it (1, 3 and 5) will be in 3 waves not 5 and there will be overlap of wave 1 by the wave 4. Wave 4 should retrace between 61.8 and 78.6% of the wave 3 in such a move. Also my 3 is NOT the shortest wave as this would invalidate the count even in an ending diagonal. I suspect like many you have read/studied the basics of Elliott Wave whereas to use it effectively one really has to study the entire theory in detail
Thank you very much Mike! I am going to study those carefully.
If you are interested in the finer details of Elliott Wave Theory then the definitive book on the subject is the one by Frost And Pretcher btw
Elliot wave count derived from Fractal A. Alternate view on the market. As always with Elliot wave analysis multiple valid counts exist. It would get more weight if DJ30 was to make all time high between now and July 4th.
That is quite an about face versus the cyclic projections you had early this year. Are you just trying to show your EW counts against your cyclic work? Curious.
BTW, I understand the dilemma and bullishness of the EW counts etc. The $SPX has had such a strong rise it is hard to be bearish at all. And that is why I vowed early this year not to short anything.
I wanted to show my roots and where I started my journey. My market views did not change, but I can see how many Elliot wave practitioners could still be bullish. I think my models are good but I do NOT presume to know the future and I will tern on the dime! Two hourly closes (ES) above 2404.5 may do it "Only the penitent man shall pass."
Let’s call the difference between 51.6 and 54 years “Kentucky windage”. The main point is the back half of previous K-waves have not been very pleasant so shorts are better served. We aren’t quite there yet but will be soon. The real question is how much weight, if any, should be given to these very long cycles in an analysis or projection. The 36 year nominal cycle, which no one ever talks about, nailed the low in 2009. Some just call it “fundamental interaction”.
As far as I am concerned, there is no 36 year cycle. 36 year rhythm is a result of interaction between 54 and 18 year cycles.
Thus (54 + 18)/2 = 36
What do you have as the last nominal 18 year low?
Certainly it is 2009.