S&P Long Term Cycle Phasing

It is interesting to note DJIA will start to outperform S&P.


DJIA /SP spread

When looking at VLT-cycles I do not tend to find the same ones in different markets.
In the US I am currently interested in a 28 year cycle, containing 4x7 year cycles, or 8x3,5 year cycles.
Here shown by the inflation adjusted index, and with the Schiller-PE.

We are 13 years into the cycle and about midways. So it may top out right here, or it could go another 3,5-7 years. We are at the top of the channel, and PE is high.

I am also seeing a possible 3x28 years cycle ending with big wars in or with the US. Dont like that… (1775, 1861, 1940… 2022 Ukraine?) But that is of course pure speculation and fear :slight_smile:

(not very “happy” with the cycles in the 1860s and 1890s… dashed)

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here is a bit more detail
-red dots at top are 7 year cycles
-black vertical lines are ideal 28-year lows
-red vertical lines are lows shifted 3,5 years early
-green vertical lines are where we are today

The current situation (green line) normally indicates the 28-year cycle is at top
-three times the cycle extended upwards for another ~7 years
-every 28-year cycle tops well above the previous
-in the 1880s and 1990s the 28-year cycle had not taken out the previous cycle high, and may explain why the cycles were extended

Current situation shows a top well above year 2000. And we are at the typical time for a cycle high…

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