Thoughts on the current 3,5 year cycle

Looks like the summer relief rally is close to an end - cycles are turning down very soon

Bear market rally finished? Are at critical point both in time and price

This rally should have reached its full potential if it is just a bear market rally. Expecting a downtrend from here and into Oct-Nov

There is divergence between the dates at the bottom of the chart and the ones you show on the chart… sep appears twice.

Because I have removed the day of month. The first one is early Sep and the second one is late Sep. It is about four weeks between marks, not one month :grinning:

Looks like the next leg down in this bear marked has started. Cycle is very bearish into Oct-Nov
(changed the date-format on the x-axis in the Opening-chart)

Thank you very much.

Recent weakness in SPX suggest we are headed for the June lows, and probably lower into Oct-Nov

I am glad you found interest in the marked again.
Your thoughts and review has helped me a lot. I appreciate your weekly review. :slightly_smiling_face.
Thank you!

1 Like

Still think we are in a bearish scenario pointing down to Oct-Nov. But currently we are in a bullish phase of the 4-week cycle, and we need to see “sabotage” the coming week to fulfill the bearish scenario.

The 4-week cycle did get sabotaged, so the bearish scenario is ON. Do expect a bounce early next week. But careful - we are in the “crash-window” of the 7-year cycle.

A video on stock market cycles, seasonal variation, and the underlying reason/driving force

Your video on this subjekt very interesting can’t get enough :slightly_smiling_face:
Thank you

Thanks for keeping the conversation going.
In case you didn’t see this post, please take a look.
I look forward to seeing you in Discord

2 Likes

Here is a bonuschart for those interested.
When I started to dig into the driving forces behind the stock market cycles… it took all my focus, and my trading got poor. I made some great discoveries, but some questions remained unanswered… I was soo close, but it just wouldn´t fit right.
So some cycles I have resolved, others remain unknown - allthough I have a pretty good idea where to look for answer. It is mainly about motivation - do you really need to know? Or is it better just to focus on the market action…

Now here is the driving force behind the ~4 wwek cycle. Also notice how it changed around the time where the market cycle changed…

1 Like

I am still shaken after to see the correlation between the sunwinds and the marked.
Thank you for enlighten me.

fortunately you dont have to monitor the solar wind… it is enough to know it has a recurring cycle, and that you fill find the same kind of cycle in the market :slight_smile:

Updates:

1 Like

I know this is not quite a “normal” thing to use regarding stockmarked… but today we have the solar stream that lately has been tied to the last move down in the ~4 weeks cycle.
So will it work this time too…?

Hej JB, I am sure how to comprehend the two last diagrams showing the solar winds. :upside_down_face:
Best regards
Kent